Transcripts
Weekend of May 18, 2008


Announcer: This is THE CHRIS MATTHEWS SHOW. Today...

CHRIS MATTHEWS, host:

Mr. Democrat. If Barack Obama wants to win over regular Democrats, he needs to become the working guy's champion. Can he channel John Edwards? Can he lead the charge against big oil and other populist villains? Can he learn to sound like a Democrat?

Hillary's people. They spurned him in favor of Hillary. So now how does he
woo the hearts that were set on her? And can he?

And finally, is she the price? Hillary sends signals she's open to running
for VP. Will Obama have to invite her to the ticket to get her all-out
backing? And is that why she's running hard even though it's over?

Hi, I'm Chris Matthews. Welcome to the show.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Interview: Norah O'Donnell of MSNBC, Clarence Page of the Chicago
Tribune, Gloria Borger of CNN and Andrew Sullivan of The Atlantic
on how Barack Obama can win over blue-collar Democrats and
die-hard Hillary supporters, and on if Hillary wants to become
vice president; Tell Me Something I Don't Know; Big Question
CHRIS MATTHEWS, host:

Norah O'Donnell's chief Washington correspondent for MSNBC. Clarence Page
writes a column for the Chicago Tribune. Gloria Borger's senior political
analyst for CNN and a columnist for U.S. News and World Report. And Andrew
Sullivan is senior editor at The Atlantic.

First up, Barack Obama has nailed down the delegate math, but even with that
momentum he took a thumping in West Virginia this week. That big loss showed
just how much of a problem he's had with white, working-class voters. Obama
tried to appeal to those voters two months ago after the Reverend Wright first
surfaced.

Senator BARACK OBAMA: (March 18) They've worked hard all their lives many
times only to see their jobs shipped overseas or their pensions dumped after a
lifetime of labor. They are anxious about their futures and they feel their
dreams slipping away.

MATTHEWS: But as West Virginia showed, that hasn't worked. John Edwards may
give him a boost in Kentucky on Tuesday, but how does Obama get those
blue-collar Democrats come November? Here's our to-do list for Obama. He's
got to show them that they have a common cause out there, they want to get
stuff together, and that they're fighting a common enemy.

Gloria, is that it? Give people what they want to get and show that you don't
like the people they don't like?

Ms. GLORIA BORGER (CNN Senior Political Analyst): Absolutely. Obviously
John Edwards is going to now be campaigning with him. And I think he's got to
tell them who he is, Chris. He's got to tell them that he just paid off his
college loans a few years ago, that he was not born into wealth, that he
understands their problems, that his mother was a single working mom. Tell
them a little bit about where he came from. And then they'll maybe understand
that he understands their problems.

MATTHEWS: He's trying to win over the people for the general election who
voted for Hillary Clinton in the primaries.

Mr. CLARENCE PAGE (Chicago Tribune Columnist): Right.

MATTHEWS: Especially in big states like Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio. Doesn't
he have to do what Hillary does? `I'll give you cheaper gas, I'll give you a
better job, I'll give you stuff.'

Mr. PAGE: Well, I think that was the test of his battling Hillary over the
gas tax holiday. It was a gimmick; he said so. And people believed him.
They--that was a big moment in American politics to me because usually if you
tell people they're going to get something free or get something back, they'll
just fall for it automatically.

MATTHEWS: Yeah, but I think West Virginia said "gimme." I think they said `we
like the offer.'

Mr. PAGE: Yeah, well, you know something, Chris?

MATTHEWS: I'm not sure that we've got a verdict on that.

Mr. PAGE: In order to show--to connect with people, you got to show them
empathy. You got to be there. You got to shake their hands, you got to talk
to them about their troubles. If he had done that, he could have shaved down
that lead.

MATTHEWS: OK. The usual way with Democrat to get--everybody knows--let's go
through it. Everybody knows how Democrats generally run. If you're for
teachers, you promise them higher salaries with no competency testing. If
you're for any kind of labor, you promise them better wages, better deals,
less trade. If you're for--if they're Jewish, you promise them better support
for Israel. You go through the whole shopping list and you give it to them.
Does he know how to do that?

Ms. NORAH O'DONNELL (MSNBC Chief Washington Correspondent): He's learning.
He's re-tooling the playbook. That's why you see the stops in Michigan, in
Macomb County. That's why you see him in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, talking at
factories and plants.

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

O'DONNELL: He is trying now to connect. At the same time, his chief
strategist, David Axelrod, has said, `Well, these are Reagan Democrats.'

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

O'DONNELL: They haven't been voting for the Democratic Party. And I went
back and looked at the numbers, because I study all the exit polls. John
Kerry lost white, working-class voters by 23 points. Al Gore lost them by 17
points. Now, Democrats have been losing them, but Barack Obama has to do
better than John Kerry in order to win the election. They know that because
they have to do better.

Mr. ANDREW SULLIVAN (The Atlantic Senior Editor): He is doing--he is doing
better than John Kerry.

Ms. BORGER: He did.

Ms. O'DONNELL: Yes.

Mr. SULLIVAN: ...and I think it's important to make a distinction between
white, working-class voters in Appalachia and white--(clears throat) excuse
me--white, working-class voters in Minnesota...

Ms. O'DONNELL: Yes.

Mr. SULLIVAN: ...Virginia, and in the Midwest.

MATTHEWS: What is the distinction?

Mr. SULLIVAN: The distinction is the difference is not as big in those
states.. And I think it's absolutely wrong for him to start doing the Hillary
pander.

Ms. BORGER: Pandering...

Mr. SULLIVAN: I think his whole message is not talk-down government. It's
`you can empower yourselves.' He's a different kind of Democrat. To blur that
brand will actually lose him votes among white independents.

Ms. O'DONNELL: He--in fact, if you look at the national polls, McCain runs
seven points ahead of Hillary among white, working-class voters. McCain runs
seven points ahead of Obama among white working voters.

Ms. BORGER: So that means half...(unintelligible)...

Mr. SULLIVAN: Compared to 23 percent for Kerry.

Ms. BORGER: You can't...

Mr. SULLIVAN: That's the critical thing.

Ms. O'DONNELL: Right. Right.

Ms. BORGER: And look at his...

Mr. SULLIVAN: Now, look. There's another thing with...

Ms. BORGER: ...African-American support. So if you want to turn that...

MATTHEWS: You mean, he can get her votes in the general? Barack can get the
Hillary vote?

Ms. O'DONNELL: The national polls suggest now that, yes, he will do OK among
the white, working-class vote.

Ms. BORGER: He doesn't have to pander because that isn't who he is, and the
minute he becomes something he's not, you know, what's his--what's his appeal?

MATTHEWS: Does he have to embrace the enemies of the average Democrat? If
you sit and--sit down with a lot of really visceral Democrats, quickly they'll
say, `I can't stand the oil companies. They're stealing our money. They're
making $30 billion at Exxon.' They don't like Halliburton, the arms industry.
They don't like Cheney. Does he have to embrace the enemy's list?

Ms BORGER: No.

Mr. SULLIVAN: No. Absolutely no. His entire theme is `I can bridge
differences. I will talk reasonably to people I disagree with.' That's his
fundamental message. To demonize enemies is exactly against his brand.

MATTHEWS: He shouldn't do that.

Ms. BORGER: No.

Mr. SULLIVAN: He should absolutely not do that.

Ms. BORGER: No, I don't--I don't--I don't necessarily think he should
demonize, but he has to have some arguments with John McCain.

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Ms. BORGER: And if John McCain is talking about tax breaks for corporations,
then he's going to say, `No, I'm not for that.'

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Ms. BORGER: He has to make distinctions, and he has to say `no, no, I
disagree. This is how'...

Mr. PAGE: Yeah.

Mr. SULLIVAN: On the two big issues...

MATTHEWS: Clarence, are they going to break the tie here?

Ms. BORGER: `This is how I will fight for you.'

Mr. PAGE: He's got to return the party to the basics that win. You know,
the one Democrat since L.B.J. who did well with working-class whites was Bill
Clinton back in '92, and he just preached that old-time Democratic religion
that, you know, `I'm for the working folks, I feel your pain. I understand
your troubles. And I'm going to fight for you.'

Mr. SULLIVAN: And Ross Perot got 20 percent of that vote.

Mr. PAGE: And that's why Hillary Clinton has done well. Sorry?

Mr. SULLIVAN: But Bill Clinton's share in '92 will not be enough.

Mr. PAGE: You're going to say it was all because of Ross Perot.

Ms. BORGER: No. No.

Mr. SULLIVAN: Well, he didn't--he didn't even get the...

MATTHEWS: OK. Let's go...

Mr. SULLIVAN: ...the majority of those people...

Ms. BORGER: Forty-three percent.

Mr. SULLIVAN: Because Perot and Bush took a huge amount of them.

Mr. PAGE: Remember, Republicans have a much worse image this year. The
public is change oriented. And Obama can take advantage of that.

MATTHEWS: OK.

Mr. SULLIVAN: Absolutely.

MATTHEWS: OK. We're talking basically ethnically for a minute here about how
an African-American guy of mixed background wins over white people. Should he
do what Ron Allen suggested last week he might be up to, begin to talk about
his biographical uniqueness...

Mr. PAGE: Yes.

MATTHEWS: ...having white grandparents on one side, having a white mother?
Should he start playing up the fact that he comes from both backgrounds?

Mr. PAGE: Well, it's important, I think, because the same way he won the
Reagan Democrats in Chicago and Illinois was by saying, you know, `I'm one of
you. I understand where you're coming from. I've been there. And I'm going
to advocate for you.'

MATTHEWS: All "you"s. All yous.

Mr. PAGE: And that's why. All of you. He went out there in the white
ethnic bungalow belt of Chicago and downstate. Remember, his parents were
from Kansas. He went downstate during county fairs and all and related
directly to people.

MATTHEWS: Did people, when they voted for him and made him a United States
senator, did they know he had that unique background of coming from both
worlds? Of ethnic groups?

Mr. PAGE: People--oh, I think that in Illinois, really, they knew him as the
skinny kid with the funny name.

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Mr. PAGE: That was how he campaigned. That's how he campaigned. He came
across that way. He didn't--he didn't mention color, didn't have to. It's
pretty darn obvious when you look...

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Mr. PAGE: ...at him, but he knew how to--how to cross the aisle.

Ms. O'DONNELL: One of the amazing things is Peter Hart, who is our pollster,
did a focus group with independents who have not been paying close attention
to the election, and the thing they most identified about Barack Obama was
that--was Reverend Wright and that they thought he was a Muslim. And so that
just shows that, especially with independents, Barack Obama still has to
educate the public about who he is. I know it seems crazy. We say, `oh my
gosh, we've been doing this for 16 months talking about this campaign,' but
there are still many people who are working hard every day who haven't had the
chance to get to know Barack Obama. So he has to talk more about his
biography.

Ms. BORGER: And he is. He is.

MATTHEWS: What does it mean when a person is told he's not a Muslim, he's
actually a Christian--that's what this whole fight about this church is--and
they say, `I don't care. He's still a Muslim'? What do you--what do you--how
do you go up against that, Clarence, when somebody just says, `I don't care
what you say...'

Mr. PAGE: It's a pretty--it's...

Ms. O'DONNELL: He answers that all the time...(unintelligible)...

Mr. PAGE: Yeah, he answers it all the time...

MATTHEWS: But what does it mean to say he is a Muslim whether he says so or
not.

Mr. PAGE: It's a small...

MATTHEWS: What does that mean?

Mr. PAGE: It's a small percentage of people and it's shrinking for the
precise reason...

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Mr. PAGE: ...Norah said.

Ms. O'DONNELL: Right.

Mr. PAGE: People don't know him out there. West Virginians...

MATTHEWS: OK.

Ms. BORGER: Well, but he...

Mr. PAGE: ....don't know him, and believe me, that's a state I know well.

MATTHEWS: I wonder if it's an attitudinal...

Mr. PAGE: People want to meet you and greet you.

MATTHEWS: ...thing more than an information question. They just don't like
him and they call him a Muslim as sort of like--`he's different than me'?

Ms. BORGER: Well, he's--you know what? He's different.

MATTHEWS: Yeah. Yeah.

Ms. BORGER: He's different. And I think that this is a question that's
raised more by older voters...

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Ms. BORGER: ...than by younger voters.

MATTHEWS: OK. We have to...

Mr. SULLIVAN: He's not--he's not that different for the next generation. He
really isn't.

Ms. O'DONNELL: Right. Right.

Mr. SULLIVAN: In fact, he's--it's McCain that looks different to the next
generation.

MATTHEWS: Bottom line. We asked The Matthews Meter, another focus group, 12
of our regulars, come November, will the desire for change this year trump
Obama's problems with the white, working-class Democrats? Ten of them are
optimists for Obama, 10 of you guys. You say change trumps those issues we've
been talking about. Just two disagree. And the four here today, all four,
the quartet in front of me, all in our meter every week, by the way, you are
our regulars, you're with the 10 optimists for Obama. And you speak for the
optimists. He can make change his winning argument.

Mr. SULLIVAN: Look, this is--this--if you look at the data, if you look at
the wrong track numbers, if you look at the partisan affiliation numbers, this
is a huge year for change and for the--for the Democrats. I mean, a lot of us
have been saying this for a year now, and it's as simple as that. If there
are some racial issues--and there will be racial issues, obviously...

Mr. PAGE: Aren't there always?

Ms. BORGER: Well...

Mr. SULLIVAN: I think it's--this is the year, if any, in which...

MATTHEWS: OK.

Mr. SULLIVAN: ...the general desire for change...

Ms. BORGER: Here's the problem though.

Mr. SULLIVAN: ...will trump that, swamp that. I think it's--I think the
likelihood is a landslide...(unintelligible).

Ms. BORGER: Here's the one problem that I see, though and it's not the
racial issue, it's the economy. And the notion that when people are scared
and they feel threatened, they may want to go back to the way it was, not so
much as `uh-oh, we really need a lot of change in our future.' They may say,
`you know what? I'm nervous. I'm nervous.' And that...

Mr. SULLIVAN: But McCain--domestically McCain cannot give that message.
He's just the wrong candidate for it. He's too--he's too uncomfortable with
economics. He's too associated with the Bush tax cuts. He's embraced the
Bush tax cuts. This is not a good...

Ms. BORGER: Right.

Mr. SULLIVAN: ...angle for McCain.

Ms. BORGER: So, it make...

MATTHEWS: I think he's going to look like the change candidate by November.

Ms. BORGER: Right, but it may not be...

MATTHEWS: He'll be told to.

Ms. BORGER: It may not be change you can believe in. It's change you feel
comfortable with, and that....

MATTHEWS: Right. I think he's going to default. You're talking about the
default button.

Mr. PAGE: That's why...

Ms. BORGER: Yes.

MATTHEWS: When in doubt go to the default. `I'm going home. I'm scared.'

Mr. PAGE: Right.

Ms. BORGER: Right.

Mr. PAGE: The default for Republicans, remember...

Mr. SULLIVAN: Default means continuing war and associating with the economy.
That means that there's fear on that front as well.

Ms. BORGER: Right. Right.

Mr. SULLIVAN: There comes a point at which change is more comfortable than
staying the same.

MATTHEWS: You speak sharply and clearly. We'll see if you're right.

Before we--before we break, if you're one of the people rooting for Obama, you
must have gotten a little worried this week. Despite all the math in Barack's
favor, Hillary seems convinced she has a way to come back and beat Obama. She
sounds completely confident that she's got the moves to fight her way out of
the fix she's in. Here she was with Katie Couric this week.

(Begin clip of "CBS Evening News," Wednesday)

Ms. KATIE COURIC: You still expect to be the Democratic nominee for
president of the United States?

Senator HILLARY CLINTON (Democrat, Presidential Candidate): I do. I
absolutely do expect to be the nominee. I think that we'll do well in these
upcoming contests. I think we will get delegates out of Florida and Michigan.
I think the superdelegates are not bound to support anyone.

(End of clip)

MATTHEWS: She's a battler who spells out exactly how she plans to win, even
if her arms are tied. It reminds me of Arnold Schwarzenegger's character in
the movie "True Lies," one of the great movies, by the way. He was in a bind.
He had no way out, but when they gave him truth serum, he made it clear he had
a plan.

(Clip from "True Lies")

MATTHEWS: When we--when we come back, with Hillary finishing just a
percentage point in delegates behind, will Barack have to offer the VP slot?
Will he have no choice. Plus, scoops and predictions right out of the
notebooks of these top reporters. TELL ME SOMETHING I DON'T KNOW. Be right
back.

Announcer: THE CHRIS MATTHEWS SHOW is brought to you by...

(Announcements)

MATTHEWS: Welcome back.

Barack Obama has all but locked up the nomination for president, but he may
end up winning it by just a percentage point in the delegate count. Could
such a close race make it hard for Barack to pick somebody but Hillary for VP?
A new poll shows that, even now, most Democrats--60 percent--say he should
pick her. Thirty-three percent say he shouldn't. As for Hillary, she's
staying mum. But she hedged a bit in an interview with Brian Williams.

Sen. CLINTON: (Wednesday) I'm not entertaining that, Brian, because it's
really premature.

MATTHEWS: "Premature." Well that does not sound Shermanesque. We put it to
The Matthews Meter, 12 of our regular panelists. Is Hillary staying into the
end of this fight partly to earn an invitation to be Obama's running mate? I
hate these results. Six say yes, six say no. Clarence, Norah and Andrew say
all there's a deal in the works here. Gloria, you say no way. For the
majority, sir.

Mr. PAGE: Well, I think--well, I think, yes, she does want to get the
invitation, at least. Whether she takes it or not, I think, is--you know,
remains to be seen. But, you know...

MATTHEWS: Shy wants the invitation, and you're--and how do we report that?
How do we know that? Just body language or what? She's staying in this race?

Mr. PAGE: Funny how these things leak out, isn't it, Chris, you know? You
know? But all these polls were taken before Edwards, you know, came out with
his endorsement...

MATTHEWS: Oh.

Mr. PAGE: ...which makes an interesting third party now, you know. Given a
choice, would you rather have Obama ask Edwards to be his running mate or not?

MATTHEWS: Well, let's take a look at this bite right now.

Sen. OBAMA: (Wednesday) John Edwards is obviously somebody who would be on
anybody's short list. But it is premature. I haven't won this nomination
yet.

MATTHEWS: Well, you got to wonder, Norah. You know, here she had--she
thought she was going to win the nomination for president. Now she she may
have thought for like two hours this week, she thought she had the nomination
for vice president. Along comes this other pretender to the throne, John
Edwards.

Ms. O'DONNELL: You have to look at the numbers and the argument she's making
about why she should be the nominee and then how quickly they could turn that
about why she should be the vice presidential pick.

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Ms. O'DONNELL: They'll make the same argument.

Ms. BORGER: They are.

Ms. O'DONNELL: What? That she's only--that he's only had seven or 800,000
more in the popular vote than her, if not counting Michigan...

MATTHEWS: Sure.

Ms. O'DONNELL: ...and Florida. She's raised $215 million. He's raised $250
million.

MATTHEWS: Good.

Ms. O'DONNELL: There's still a huge base of support behind Hillary Clinton.

MATTHEWS: Do you have to get the states or just do it that macro way you just
did it? Can--do you have to say `I can get you Pennsylvania'?

Ms. O'DONNELL: She has argued that certainly.

MATTHEWS: I think she could get Pennsylvania.

Ms. O'DONNELL: Yes. She has argued that--Pennsylvania, Ohio--she certainly
argues it with working-class voters, that....

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Ms. O'DONNELL: ...he has that constituency. And remember, perhaps more
important than that is women. Women are important. You have to win them.

MATTHEWS: I agree completely. The most...

Ms. BORGER: You know, can I...

MATTHEWS: And by the way, they're the majority voter in the country.

Ms. O'DONNELL: Yes, they are.

MATTHEWS: You know, Gloria, you disagree with this whole idea...

Ms. BORGER: I do.

MATTHEWS: ...of a matchup, a pairing, if you will, a coupling, if you will,
of Barack and Hillary. Why?

Ms. BORGER: Bad marriage. I just think it's a bad marriage. It's not what
his campaign has been about.

MATTHEWS: He can't trust her?

Ms. BORGER: It--I don't know if it's just so much about trust. I think it's
just that it's not what his campaign has been about.

MATTHEWS: OK.

Ms. BORGER: You talk to...

Mr. SULLIVAN: It is a--in a way it can be...

Ms. BORGER: Let me just say, you talk to people in her campaign and they
will say, you know, she would be great, she would be terrific. You talk to
people in the Obama campaign, and they say not so much.

MATTHEWS: Is this too much? First African-American president? I mean,
African-Americans have not won that many big jobs to begin with.

Ms. BORGER: Right.

MATTHEWS: First woman president, women haven't won that many big jobs in the
big states yet, either. Is this too much?

Mr. SULLIVAN: No. It's conceivable. I mean, I think the only way he can do
it is by saying, `I--this is a very, very important election. I'm going to be
Lincoln,' as Doris Kearns Goodwin. `I'm going to have a team of rivals.'

Ms. O'DONNELL: Mm.

Mr. SULLIVAN: Because the world environment and the domestic environment is
in such crisis that I have to follow the lead of Abraham Lincoln.

MATTHEWS: Would you put Bill Clinton...

Ms. BORGER: Can I...

MATTHEWS: ...in your Cabinet?

Ms. BORGER: Right.

MATTHEWS: Would you...

Mr. SULLIVAN: Absolutely not. Because...

MATTHEWS: But I mean, he will be in there if you put the--if you put his wife
in?

Mr. SULLIVAN: The point is, Hillary's going to be a danger to him, whether
she's on the ticket or off it. If she is on the ticket, it makes her chance
for 2012 if he loses much worse. If she's off it and he loses, then she goes
in for the kill. You want to have your enemies close, Chris, in politics...

MATTHEWS: Oh.

Ms. BORGER: Well...

Mr. SULLIVAN: ...and she has shown...

MATTHEWS: You mean stake her...

Mr. SULLIVAN: What she's shown now...

MATTHEWS: Stake her to the fight so she has to lose if you lose.

Mr. SULLIVAN: Yes.

Ms. BORGER: Can I...

Mr. SULLIVAN: Bind her to the mat. That would...

MATTHEWS: That is so smart.

Mr. SULLIVAN: That...

Ms. BORGER: Well, I don't know. I don't know. Can I just say something?

Mr. SULLIVAN: Now, I would say this, the one thing that Hillary has and is
proving, I think, is that she can do damage to him. That's what she's
proving. And so by saying `I can do damage to you,' she's goading him to say,
`OK, I can't afford to have you outside doing damage to me. I'd rather have
you inside.'

MATTHEWS: Boy, that's...

Ms. BORGER: Let's talk about Hillary Clinton's view of the vice presidency.
She had a real bird's-eye view of the vice presidency when Al Gore was there,
and she spent a lot of her time competing with Al Gore.

MATTHEWS: And she won all of the fights.

Mr. SULLIVAN: Yeah.

Ms. BORGER: She won--she did--she did win all the fights. So if she were to
be vice president, she would have to be a very strong one. And that is
something that I...

MATTHEWS: As strong as Cheney?

Ms. BORGER: Well, yes, as strong as Cheney because she...

MATTHEWS: Wow.

Mr. SULLIVAN: The question is, is she as strong as Michelle? That's the
question.

MATTHEWS: I wish we had three hours...

Mr. SULLIVAN: That's the question, Chris.

MATTHEWS: We'll be right back with scoops and predictions right out of the
notebooks of these top reporters. TELL ME SOMETHING I DON'T KNOW. Be right
back.

(Announcements)

MATTHEWS: Welcome back.

Norah, TELL ME SOMETHING I DON'T KNOW.

Ms. O'DONNELL: John Edwards has publicly said he doesn't want the number two
spot, but privately he has told his advisers that he would consider it. He
would also consider being attorney general, of course, because R.F.K. is his
role model.

MATTHEWS: Wow. I like that story.

Mr. PAGE: All right. One part of Obama's biography he hasn't talked much
about is the fact that he was raised by a single mom and a dad who left the
family. One way to reach working-class white conservatives is talk about
illegitimacy, out of wedlock births.

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Mr. PAGE: Because that's one area where he could really do something to
start a dialogue.

MATTHEWS: A little more Bill Cosby?

Mr. PAGE: Right, exactly.

MATTHEWS: Yeah. Let me go to Gloria.

Ms. BORGER: OK. Off the presidential campaign, House Republicans are
completely traumatized because they've lost three special elections in a row.
And I'm hearing buzz on Capitol Hill that there could be a shake-up in the
House Republican leadership.

Mr. SULLIVAN: Maliki is doing better than anybody recently expected. The
success in Basra and beginning of success in Sadr City, the alienation and
marginalization of Sadrites is going to lead to what for many of us hope for,
which is some political progress in Iraq.

MATTHEWS: Wow. And, by the way, we have an extra feature on our Web site now
where you can go for more details on these "tell me something"s, so check it
out.

I'll be right back with this week's BIG QUESTION. Is President Bush going to
spend his final months in office injecting himself into the debate between
John McCain and Barack Obama? Be right back.

Announcer: THE CHRIS MATTHEWS SHOW is brought to you by...

(Announcements)

MATTHEWS: Welcome back. President Bush took an unusual shot at Barack Obama
this week, saying any negotiations with Iran would be reminiscent of the,
quote, "appeasement" of Nazi Germany. That brings us to this week's BIG
QUESTION. Is George Bush going to keep this up, getting knee deep in the
effort to hold the White House for his party?

Norah?

Ms. O'DONNELL: The president claims he's not going to be the pundit in
chief, and that this was not a reference to Obama. But it's clear he wanted
to throw this punch. And it may be because the Republicans are very concerned
about their prospects in November, not only the presidency, but also these
congressional races. Eight in 10 voters say this country is headed in the
wrong direction, and they blame the president.

MATTHEWS: OK. So he's still going to take shots at Barack, but say he's not?

Mr. PAGE: Of course, of course. You know...

MATTHEWS: Is that what he's going to do?

Mr. PAGE: Right, because the contrast is so great between Barack Obama and
McCain, the Republican position, and Bush is doing the math. He wants to
guard his legacy now. National security...

MATTHEWS: OK.

Mr. PAGE: ...is an important issue so he can do some help here.

MATTHEWS: He wants McCain.

Ms. BORGER: Right after the president said that, McCain echoed the
president. So it's clear that you see there may be a little choreography
here. If it works, he'll keep on doing it. If it doesn't work, he won't.

MATTHEWS: So he thought he was talking about Barack?

Ms. BORGER: Yeah.

Mr. SULLIVAN: All I can say is this is Obama's dream...

Mr. PAGE: Right. Right.

Ms. O'DONNELL: Right.

Mr. SULLIVAN: ...to run against George W. Bush. To run against a foreign
policy that won't talk to anybody. This is--this is--this is absolute gold
for Obama...

Mr. PAGE: Lock them together.

Mr. SULLIVAN: And he should pray that Bush will be--he'll run against Bush.

MATTHEWS: You are so mentally faster than I am, Andrew. I am glad to have
you--I'm serious. I'm not sarcastic. That was brilliantly quick--quickly
done.

Ms. BORGER: We're...

MATTHEWS: Thanks to a great roundtable. Norah O'Donnell, Clarence Page,
Gloria Borger and Andrew Sullivan.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Sign-off: NBC's The Chris Matthews Show
CHRIS MATTHEWS, host:

That's the show. Thanks for watching. To catch a webcast of our show, go to
thechrismatthewsshow.com. See you next week.