Announcer: This is THE CHRIS MATTHEWS SHOW. Today...
CHRIS MATTHEWS, host:
Here at the creation. Will the young senator from Illinois, the land of
Lincoln, born to an African father with a mom from Kansas, join our grand
American history? Will Barack Obama be the president who leads us to a new America?
Who moved my presidency? They've been the king and queen of the Democratic Party for two decades, but what would become of the Clintons in an Obama era? Could greatness still beckon?
Then finally, huge! What a time to be an American. My thoughts on being here at this incredible moment.
Profile: Katty Kay of the BBC, Joe Klein of Time, Norah O'Donnell
of MSNBC and Eugene Robinson of The Washington Post on the
possibility of an Obama presidency; Tell Me Something I Don't
Know; Big Question
CHRIS MATTHEWS, host:
Katty Kay covers American politics for the British Broadcasting Corporation.
Joe Klein writes a column for Time magazine. Norah O'Donnell's chief
Washington correspondent for MSNBC. And Eugene Robinson is a Washington Post
columnist.
First up, only two days left. If you believe the polls, Barack Obama's
looking at a pretty big win, but John McCain's still holding out hope and it
wouldn't be the first time he's come back from near defeat. Last year he was
all but written off, reduced to traveling pretty much by himself, but then he
pulled off that stunning victory in New Hampshire.
Senator JOHN McCAIN: (January 8) Tonight, we sure showed them what a comeback
looks like.
MATTHEWS: That put McCain on track to the Republican nomination. As for
Obama, his performance has been far more consistent. Few had even heard of
Barack Obama until that keynote speech at the Democratic convention back in
'04. He then quietly organized his crack campaign team. And then came a pair
of breakout moments, exactly a year ago. First Obama found an opening after
Hillary Clinton fumbled that question on driver's licenses at the Democratic
debate, her first big stumble. And a couple weeks later Obama took off as the
darling of Iowa Democrats after this rousing speech at the state's Jefferson
Jackson dinner.
Senator BARACK OBAMA: (November 10, 2007) In this election, in this moment,
let us reach for what we know is possible: a nation healed, a world repaired,
an America that believes again. Thank you very much, everybody. Thank you.
Thank you.
MATTHEWS: After winning the first big contest in Iowa, he really got rolling
when he swept 11 primaries in a row in February, running up a delegate lead
that Hillary never could beat. Six months later, Obama was in that stadium in
Denver, the nominee of the Democratic Party. From there, he was neck and neck
with John McCain for a few weeks, but in late September there were two more
turning points. First came the financial crisis, and then Obama showed
himself to be a steady hand in the first debate. That's when the Obama
trajectory took off, and his domination of McCain has been pretty consistent
every since.
Joe, I look at the bad economy we've had, the warnings of worse to come. I
look at a lot of other things, the failure of the Bush presidency, but it
seems to me the most important fact of life here is that Barack Obama is the
Democratic Party's nominee for president. That's what--that's what's so
determinant.
Mr. JOE KLEIN (Time Columnist): This was going to be a very, very difficult
year for Republican under any circumstances. But I would--I would add this:
I've covered--this is my ninth presidential campaign, God help me--and it is a
contest between the guy with the worst temperament I've seen in a presidential
candidate for the presidency, John McCain, and a guy with the best temperament
I've seen for a president in Barack Obama. Key moments were picking Palin on
McCain's part and suspending his campaign in the midst of the financial
crisis. When people looked at those two decisions, they were made in a kind
of preemptory, shoot-from-the hip kind of way and they didn't like it.
MATTHEWS: Let's talk about how America may have changed. You've covered the
campaign this past week in Virginia. That's grabbed me. Not all the old
states we talk about all the time--Pennsylvania and Ohio and all. Seems like
Virginia's the one to watch this year.
Ms. KATTY KAY (BBC Washington Correspondent): Yeah, I remember thinking a
year ago that Virginia was the new big swing state, and it's partly because
Virginia itself has changed. It's that you've had this big influx of people
into northern Virginia, immigrants as well who have now--Hispanics who have
swung massively to the Obama campaign. They were so pro-Hillary early on in
the primaries, but he's really brought them on board. And if you look at a
state like Virginia, you can also look at North Carolina. They're states that
have changed. It's not so much that the conservative areas of those states
have become more liberal. It's more that the makeup as a whole of those
states has changed, and that's why he's doing so well there. I was down with
him on Thursday night in Virginia Beach. Huge crowd, 10,000 people, very big
African-American turnout in that crowd, too. These were people that perhaps,
you know, a year or so ago might have been feeling more conservative. But
with this economy, they're really reaching out to Obama.
MATTHEWS: Right. Virginia Beach, the largest city in Virginia, of course.
Let me go to--let me talk to Gene, my buddy. Let's talk about the ethnic vote
here, the black vote. You know, for years, the Democrats have used that sort
of unfelicitous term, "the base." But it is really the foundation, it seems to
me, this year. I looked at the early voting coming out of Georgia. The
African-American vote is dynamite for early voting.
Mr. EUGENE ROBINSON (Columnist, The Washington Post): It seems to be. I was
just talking to my family down in South Carolina. My mother went to take her
and my father's absentee ballots in because my father's kind of a shut in, and
there were long lines. This was a week before the voting. There were--there
were lines out, essentially black voters waiting to cast their ballots. You
know, look at Virginia, look at North Carolina, look at Georgia, where the
polls have been closer than anyone would have imagined a year ago. You see,
in part, an emergence of the black middle class and an empowerment of the
black middle class in a way that you maybe haven't seen in prior elections.
MATTHEWS: Here's an existential question. Can you live with yourself if
you're African-American and you don't vote this year? I mean, that's pretty
blunt.
Mr. ROBINSON: Well, we'll see. I mean I...
MATTHEWS: I mean, how do you explain it? `I was busy. I was--I had to go to
work hard. I was working three jobs.' What do you say?
Mr. ROBINSON: It seems like a lot of people are guessing--no, I wouldn't be
able to, because it does seem that the turnout is quite huge.
Ms. KAY: But I had some...
Ms. NORAH O'DONNELL (MSNBC Chief Washington Correspondent): Yeah.
Ms. KAY: ...African-Americans say to me that in a way they're glad that the
polls have tightened in this last week in some of the battleground states,
because if Obama had gone in on election night with a massive lead in all
those battlegrounds...
MATTHEWS: Yeah. (Unintelligible)
Ms. KAY: ...and lost, you may have had an African-American vote that would
have said the only factor here was race.
MATTHEWS: OK. Let's go to that dizzying fact that, even as we go to the last
weekend, here we are on a weekend, looking at the fact that there--you're
laughing because I know what we're going to talk about--these undecided
people. These incredible people. Imagine what they're like in a restaurant,
trying to order a meal. I mean, will you do it? It reminds me of the old Art
Carney, you know, `Do it, will you?' How do they break?
Ms. O'DONNELL: There is a segment of undecided voters out there, believe it
or not, probably 6 percent. According to our pollsters, they tend to be
white, they tend to be older, they tend to be women, and they tend to be lower
educated. The McCain campaign is banking on the fact that they are going to
disproportionately favor John McCain, and they think that will tighten the
race. However, history shows that they split about evenly, if in fact they go
to the poll.
MATTHEWS: It's a wash.
Ms. O'DONNELL: It is a wash. However, that demographic of women tend to be
those who voted for Hillary Clinton. Why haven't they yet gone for Barack
Obama? And that's why it's significant to watch those undecided voters.
That's why you saw Barack Obama buy that 30 minutes of television.
MATTHEWS: Yeah.
Ms. O'DONNELL: Blanket the airwaves to try and reach those final people.
It's why the Clintons are back out there on the campaign trails while Al Gore
is trying to close for him in Florida. He wants those people. Very, very
interesting, though--fact, though. I'm told, though, in the states where
Barack Obama is over 50 percent, even if John McCain were to win all of the
undecideds, it wouldn't help him.
MATTHEWS: Yeah. Right.
Ms. KAY: And the other thing, I think, I've heard, too, from the campaign is
that the people that have switched, the so-called moveables...
Ms. O'DONNELL: Yes.
Ms. KAY: ...who have recently come onto the Obama campaign, the Obama people
are saying, `These have actually become some of our most die-hard supporters.'
MATTHEWS: Let's take a look at this. In every recent election when a
candidate is up in the national polls by at least five points heading into the
election, that candidate ends up in the Oval Office. It seems to be a good
predictor. Ronald Reagan had 24 point lead back in '84. The senior George
Bush had a five point lead in '88. Bill Clinton had big national leads in
both '92 and '96.
Joe, everybody knocks polls. But the 11th-hour polls, the polls we're all
going to watch right before we vote, are pretty good predictors, aren't they?
TEXT:
Pre-Election Election Day
'84 Reagan +24 +18
'88 Bush +5 +8
'92 Clinton +8 +6
'96 Clinton +12 +9
Mr. KLEIN: Yeah, they are--they are pretty good. In fact, polling in
general has gotten a lot more sophisticated, and there is such a broad range
of polls that even the irresponsible ones are folded into the poll of polls
and their impact is kind of diminished. But you know, the--to me, the numbers
aren't the interesting thing here. We're watching something huge taking
place. And, you know, to go back to the--to the African-American vote, there
are an awful lot of African-Americans, I know, who don't believe in their
heart of hearts that white people will vote for a black man.
Ms. O'DONNELL: Candidate.
Mr. ROBINSON: Mm-hm.
Mr. KLEIN: And with good judge--you know, with just cause, because of the
way they've been treated in their lives.
Ms. KAY: But it isn't...
Mr. KLEIN: It is going to change--if this man is elected, the inner life of
so many Americans is going--is going to change in the most basic profound sort
of way.
Ms. KAY: I think...
Ms. O'DONNELL: You know, it is important to remember that John Kerry lost
the white vote by 17 points. It's not that white people won't vote for a
black man. White people don't generally vote for Democrats.
Mr. KLEIN: Right.
Mr. ROBINSON: Right.
Ms. O'DONNELL: So if he can close it, make it more than--less than 17
paints--I mean, John Kerry lost by 17 points among white people--if Barack
Obama can close that, then that's really a significant story.
Mr. ROBINSON: Well, that would be amazing...
Ms. O'DONNELL: Yeah.
Mr. ROBINSON: ...because there is that specific concern. Will they
vote--will white people in the end vote for the black guy as president?
MATTHEWS: You know, I'm glad you used the word "huge," Joe, because I think
election night is going to be emotional for all of us. And I think, even
those of us who do it for a profession, if this election goes--particularly if
it goes in that historic direction, it's going to be very emotional for
everybody. I mean, everybody.
As we count it down, the final weeks, of course, each week we've been asking
The Matthews Meter, 12 of our regulars, who won the week. It is still a game
to some extent. So for this final week, we asked them again, which guy, Obama
or McCain, won this past week? Well, 10 to two this time. There it is, seven
in a row. Just last week before the election, it looks like seven weeks in a
row. Norah, Katty and Joe were all in that meter, and all with the winner.
You know, back when Barack--just to remind ourselves, as recently as that
first week we did this, it looked like this was going to be pretty good for
McCain. McCain was starting off pretty good coming out of the chute, right,
Norah?
Ms. O'DONNELL: It's true. Barack Obama has kept a steady message, and he
has deployed his overwhelming resources in a more targeted way. He has more
paths to victory on the electoral map than John McCain does. Just the other
day, John McCain seemed to put forward five different messages on one day....
MATTHEWS: Yeah.
Ms. KAY: Yeah.
Ms. O'DONNELL: ...about what they were trying to talk about. You want to
control the media. Only give them one message every day.
Ms. KAY: He...
MATTHEWS: We got to have a wraparound now. It's the end of this segment and
it's a big question. Ready? This is a tough one for hard-nosed reporters.
Is this going to be another one of those elections that's sort of a 50-50
thing, like the election of 2000, the election of 2004, we've gotten used to
where it's--true north is about 50-50, or will there be something a mandate
coming out of this election? Mandate or split?
Ms. KAY: I think there will be something of a mandate. Those battleground
polls are just looking too favorable for Obama.
MATTHEWS: Joe?
Mr. KLEIN: Last time 51.5 seemed a mandate for George Bush. He just blew
it. I mean, I think that you don't have to win by all that much to have a
mandate at this moment.
Ms. O'DONNELL: There's no doubt if you get a filibuster-proof majority in
the Senate for the Democrats and there's a Democratic president, you have a
mandate, but you have to guard against overreachng because there's another
election two years after that, and voters don't like unchecked government.
MATTHEWS: Well, back to you, Joe. Do you still think it's a 50-50 country on
an average year?
Mr. KLEIN: I think that the pendulum has begun to swing in the direction of
liberalism.
MATTHEWS: Gene?
Mr. ROBINSON: I think the pendulum is swinging. I think it is--it is
closer.
MATTHEWS: Like it did in '80?
Mr. ROBINSON: Yes. And now, how does that translate? Are there factors
that will keep Barack Obama's vote from fully recognizing that?
MATTHEWS: Yeah.
Ms. KAY: (Unintelligible).
Mr. ROBINSON: Will he get, you know, 52 instead of 57? I--you know, I don't
know. I mean, 57 would be huge by itself...
MATTHEWS: Oh, I think people want the government of the United States
performance roll, for once, and I just, you know...
Mr. ROBINSON: ...but I think the mandate is there.
MATTHEWS: Yeah. I think they want people to do stuff.
Mr. ROBINSON: And I think the new president, either one, is going to have to
deal with it.
MATTHEWS: Before we break, there are two days left, but all of us know how
long it's taken us to get here. So we thought we'd take you back to
yesteryear, before Barack Obama was, well, Barack Obama. First time we ever
mentioned his name on this show was, believe it or not, four years ago, right
after his keynote in the 2004 Democratic convention. Listen to how prescient,
however, we were even back then. First, in our show's opening sequence and
then with reaction from ABC's Sam Donaldson.
(Begin clips from August 1, 2004)
MATTHEWS: A star is born. His father is Kenyan, his mother Kansan, his name
African. Having come so far, can Barack Obama stop short of the White House?
Mr. SAM DONALDSON: State Senate is not the same as the United States Senate.
Now, if he can handle himself well, yes, he may be the rising star, and then
Hillary will never get her chance.
(End of excerpts)
MATTHEWS: And check out this prophecy delivered on this show from New York
Times columnist Maureen Dowd two years ago back in October 2006.
(Begin clip from October 8, 2006)
Ms. MAUREEN DOWD (The New York Times): Well, our great political reporter
Johnny Apple died this week...
MATTHEWS: Hm.
Ms. DOWD: ...and he was very up on politics right until the very end. And I
will give you a prediction from him, which is that it will be easier in 2008
for a black to become president than a woman, he thinks, because women have a
track record of failure in this regard, and he thinks that Colin Powell kind
of got the American psyche ready for the idea.
MATTHEWS: That is smart.
(End of clip)
MATTHEWS: And then that December of 2006, New York Times columnist David
Brooks gave this prediction.
(Begin clip from December 17, 2006)
Mr. DAVID BROOKS (The New York Times): People look at Washington and they
think, `I want something new.' Obama's something new. Then they look at the
world and they say, `I want somebody seasoned.' Hillary is actually seasoned.
MATTHEWS: Yeah.
Mr. BROOKS: And so these are the two tendencies that the Democratic Party
are going to have to wrestle with. I think Obama's going to grow on people.
We all know Obama more than most voters do right now...
Ms. CYNTHIA TUCKER: Right.
Mr. BROOKS: ...and me personally, pretty impressed. He's a normal guy.
(End of clip)
MATTHEWS: Brooks was right on the money. Unfortunately, not everyone was.
Katty, Norah and Joe, here we all are back in October 2006.
(Begin clip from October 22, 2006)
MATTHEWS: I've warned you all about this bottom line, and you are being taped
for future reference. You're in the archives. Will, a year from now, next
October, Obama be a candidate for president?
Ms. KAY: Yes.
Mr. ROBINSON: No.
Ms. O'DONNELL: Yes.
Mr. KLEIN: No. His wife is a very powerful force in this, and his family.
(End of clip)
MATTHEWS: Joe, let's be honest. Michelle has grown as a political spouse.
She's done a lot of things and be--grown into this. Was one of the things she
had to grow into was accepting him running?
Mr. KLEIN: Could I just say that I--that came after I had written a column
titled "Obama--Barack Obama Isn't Not Running for President," and I heard that
Michelle was really angry about the fact that he...(unintelligible).
MATTHEWS: OK.
Ms. O'DONNELL: But--Katty and I would just like to go like to...
Ms. KAY: Yes!
Ms. O'DONNELL: ...go like this.
(Kay and O'Donnell high five)
MATTHEWS: OK. When we come back, if Obama wins, what's next for Hillary and
Bill Clinton? Plus, scoops and predictions right out of the notebooks of
these top reporters. TELL ME SOMETHING I DON'T KNOW.
You took it like a man.
***
MATTHEWS: Welcome back.
Bill Clinton hit the campaign trail this week, throwing his whole-hearted
support behind Barack Obama. Of course, it wasn't always hugs and smiles.
They've been estranged ever since Obama started beating Hillary back in the
primaries. And then Obama compounded things by criticizing Bill Clinton's
presidency in this editorial board meeting.
Sen. OBAMA: (January 16) I think Ronald Reagan changed the trajectory of
America in a way that, you know, Richard Nixon did not. And in a way that
Bill Clinton did not.
MATTHEWS: But what happens to the Clintons if Obama wins the White House next
week? For her part, here's what Hillary told Fox News.
(Begin clip from "Fox and Friends," October 14)
Unidentified Reporter: On a scale of one to 10 scale, what are the chances
you'll be the next majority leader?
Senator HILLARY CLINTON: Oh, probably zero.
Reporter: Zero?
Sen. CLINTON: Zero.
REPORTER: What are the chances you'll be nominated to the US Supreme Court?
Sen. CLINTON: Zero. I have no interest in doing that.
Reporter: OK. What are the chances you'll run for president again?
Sen. CLINTON: Probably close to zero.
(End of clip)
MATTHEWS: Gene, where are they at, the Clintons, Hillary and Bill?
Mr. ROBINSON: I think Hillary Clinton is likely to remain in the Senate. I
don't think there's a clear, good option for her, an alternative option for
her. So I think she does that and works on the issues with which she's become
identified. She really cares about health care. She really cares about the
country, I think, in a--in a very genuine way. And women's issues. Now, Bill
Clinton, on the other hand, I think wants his legacy back, or the--or the part
of it...
MATTHEWS: OK.
Mr. ROBINSON: ...that he squandered during the campaign.
MATTHEWS: That's what--that leads us to some news, perhaps. Joe, what's Bill
going to do, according to what you hear?
Mr. KLEIN: Well, you know, I--when I interviewed Obama last week, we talked
about this, and he said that he had talked to Clinton about--when they had
lunch in Harlem--about the possibility of being an envoy to Kashmir to resolve
the India/Pakistan battle there, which Obama believes is crucial to solving
Afghanistan and stabilizing Pakistan. It's a big job. I wonder if Bill will
take it.
MATTHEWS: And Bill said--Bill Clinton's got a tremendous following in South
Asia generally.
Mr. KLEIN: Right. He's also been huge in South Asia.
MATTHEWS: Any thoughts about Hillary Clinton?
Ms. KAY: I think Hillary Clinton is much more disciplined--well, she's
clearly much more disciplined than her husband has ever been.
Mr. ROBINSON: Yeah.
Ms. KAY: And not just perhaps in matters of politics, but so--for her to
stay in the Senate and actually work on issues that she believes in is a much
more plausible course, I think; whereas Bill is somebody with a grander vision
for himself and for his legacy. I mean, he would need a role like that. The
other thing is, why not put him out there in the rest of the world? He is
still hugely popular around the world.
Mr. KLEIN: Right.
Ms. KAY: Use him where he's...(unintelligible)...liked.
MATTHEWS: Norah, last thought on the Bill and Hillary program.
Ms. O'DONNELL: I think she stays strong in the Senate. If John McCain wins,
she will run against John McCain in 2012, and Barack Obama might run again in
2012. He indicated that in an interview this week, if John McCain becomes
president.
I'll be right back with scoops and predictions right out of the notebooks of
these top reporters. TELL ME SOMETHING I DON'T KNOW. Be right back.
***
MATTHEWS: Welcome back.
Katty, TELL ME SOMETHING I DON'T KNOW.
Ms. KAY: It is going to be Tuesday night and we still don't know who's going
to win this election, but of course there are already mutterings about Cabinet
positions, Chris. Bob Gates is one that's been heard of for defense. The
other one that I've been hearing...
MATTHEWS: Keep him on?
Ms. KAY: Keep him on. The other one that I've heard is that Hank Paulson
might stay on. Perhaps not for very long, but for six months or so to see
them through...
MATTHEWS: If Obama wins?
Ms. KAY: ...this economic crisis. If Obama wins.
MATTHEWS: OK. Keep on two guys, Treasury and defense.
Mr. KLEIN: The US intelligence community now believes that the central front
in the war on terror is not Iraq and not even Afghanistan, but Pakistan, that
al-Qaeda has decided that it wants to try to--try and overthrow the Pakistani
government. This is a big, big deal.
MATTHEWS: Wow.
Ms. O'DONNELL: Elizabeth Dole is facing a very difficult race for reelectipn
in North Carolina against another woman. If Elizabeth Dole does not win, it
will be the first time since 1952 that you don't have a Dole or a Bush holding
elective office.
MATTHEWS: Wow. Gene?
Mr. ROBINSON: If John McCain and Sarah Palin lose, Sarah Palin's sights
could next be set on the US Senate. So if I were Lisa Murkowski, Republican
senator from Alaska, I might watch my back for a primary challenge in two
years.
MATTHEWS: I like that stuff.
Anyway, thanks to a great roundtable on an historic weekend. Katty Kay, Joe
Klein, Norah O'Donnell and Gene Robinson.
After the break, what a time to be an American. My thoughts on being here at
this incredible moment. Be right back.
Commentary: On the possibility of an historic election outcome
CHRIS MATTHEWS, host:
I have this notion of America that I've been working on. It's romantic, but
also drawn from our grittiest history, those waves of immigration that brought
so many of us to this country. Wherever we came from, there were those who
took a chance, pulled up stakes, threw off what they had and made the often
risky, dangerous crossing to this new land. They made this most basic of all
decisions, `I will not live this way. It's got to be better than this.' Those
were our grandparents, great-grandparents, great-great-grandparents. And of
course there were others, those who stayed home, who said, `I can live with
this. Let's just muddle through.'
Well, we're children of that first group, the ones who said, `No way am I
putting up with this second-rate existence. I'm taking a chance. I'm going
to America.' Well, I think that's in our blood. I love what the great Kansas
newspaper editor William Allen White once wrote about us. Quote, " The most
precious gift God has given to this land is not its great riches of soil and
forest and land, but the divine discontent planted deeply in the hearts of the
American people."
There's something else. If Americans elect Barack Obama president, we will
evidence for ourselves and for the world the truth said by our forefathers to
be self-evident, not just that we are created equal, endowed with certain
liberties, but that old founding notion of "we" has been replaced by something
new and truly American.
So as we start this new century now at full speed, Americans seem on the verge
of, in one vote, achieving two goals: taking a great American leap towards
something better and uniting our country as never before in our history.
