Leads: The Chris Matthews Show
Announcer: Today...
CHRIS MATTHEWS, host:
Test of strength. The Clintons try to shut the door but Obama kicks it open.
Have the little people broken the power of the big-money big shots?
Carolina in the morning. Will Edwards' strong money showing become the start
of something big?
And who's your daddy? The party of Reagan is still looking for a father
figure. Is it this well-groomed fellow, Mitt Romney? Or is it Mr. "Law &
Order," Fred Thompson.
Interview: Cynthia Tucker of Atlanta Journal Constitution, Dan
Rather of HDNet, Norah O'Donnell of MSNBC and Michael Duffy of
Time magazine discuss presidential fund-raising, candidates and
give their scoops and predictions
CHRIS MATTHEWS, host:
Cynthia Tucker's editorial page editor of the Atlanta Journal Constitution.
Dan Rather's global correspondent for HDNet. Norah O'Donnell's chief
Washington correspondent for MSNBC. And Michael Duffy covers politics for
Time magazine.
First up, this was supposed to be the week Hillary Clinton locked it up. Just
a few weeks ago, Clinton confidant Terry McAuliffe joked about raising
trillions of dollars in the first quarter.
Mr. TERRY McAULIFFE: The campaign's doing great. We got a long way to go.
It's going to be a long campaign. But it's exciting. We're raising lots of
money. We're going to announce our first-quarter number in about two weeks,
and I'm here to report we're going to have a magnificent number. We're going
to raise $10 trillion in the first quarter.
MATTHEWS: Hillary did end up raising a record-breaking 26 million, but the
big shocker was rookie Barack Obama's 25 million. We asked the Matthews
Meter, 12 of our regular panelists: Has Hillary Clinton lost her
inevitability? Not even close. Eleven say, `Yes, she has lost it.' Just one
say no, and sure enough two new Zogby Polls show the race in the early states
narrowing now. In New Hampshire, Clinton leads with 29 percent, and Obama and
Edwards are tied at 23. In Iowa Edwards leads with 27 percent, Clinton's
right behind with 25 and Obama's at 23. These early races are wide open.
Dan, it's still happy hunting and the Clintons are just another pair of
hunters, right?
Mr. DAN RATHER (HDNet, Global Correspondent): Right. The inevitability is
gone. If you have to bet the trailer money, you still bet on Hillary Clinton,
but what does Al Gore do is--the big question out there, Obama showed that he
can go the distance. Edwards is not going away. On the Democratic side, this
is now Russellmania's version of the "SmackDown."
MATTHEWS: OK.
Mr. RATHER: It will continue through the early primaries...(unintelligible).
MATTHEWS: Norah, everybody knows that Hillary wants to be president, and
she's ready for the job and Bill's behind her. Is this diffusion of money, to
Edwards as well as to Obama, a statement of `Not yet, we're not ready to
commit as Democrats to Hillary'?
Ms. NORAH O'DONNELL (MSNBC Chief Washington Correspondent): Absolutely. I
think the aura of inevitability is gone, and I think what we've seen too is
this enthusiasm gap between the amount of money the Democrats raised and the
amount of money the Republicans raised. It was like $80 million total for the
Democrats, like 50 million for the Republicans. Since 1976 it's always been a
Republican who raised the most money in primaries. This is the first time it
was a Democrat. So you have a sense the Democrats out there want change, and
they're willing to pour money in early, and I think they're spreading it
around.
MATTHEWS: It's interesting, Cynthia, that the money's not all coming from the
usual suspect, the big-name people. You always know all your life who the
big-money people are. One hundred thousand contributors for Obama, 50,000 for
Hillary. It's almost like those guys waving placards, people waving placards
are now waving $100 bills. They're all getting in the act.
Ms. CYNTHIA TUCKER (Atlanta Journal-Constitution Editorial Page Editor):
Absolutely. The thing that is exciting for Obama is not just that he's raised
so much money but who he's raising it from. One hundred thousand supporters
says a lot more than 50,000 supporters, and he's bringing people into the
process who haven't been in the process before. A lot of younger voters or a
lot of younger activists who don't necessarily get interested in politics are
now very interested in him. He's got not just the old Hollywood hands, the
big producers...
MATTHEWS: Yeah.
Ms. TUCKER: ...but he's got some younger rap stars in Atlanta who are
solidly behind him. That's exciting.
MATTHEWS: Let me ask you, Mike, would people fork over $100, $1000 and maybe
they're also getting automated. I love this. These guys, once you contribute
now, you're put on an automated--they say how about every month now, like
church.
Mr. MICHAEL DUFFY (Time): Right.
MATTHEWS: Do they think--does that mean they think he can win the whole thing
or is it just ideals speaking here?
Mr. DUFFY: Well, I think it means both. There's a group of people who just
wants change, as Norah points out. There's a group of people who just wants
to turn the page on the past, and they're excited about what Barack Obama
represents. This is obviously a completely different kind of candidacy. The
Republicans are excited about him. They did two other things that are worth
noting on the money. He didn't take lobbying money. He probably left 2 to $3
million on the table in Washington, DC, alone.
MATTHEWS: No pack money.
Mr. DUFFY: No pack money.
MATTHEWS: I heard him say that...(unintelligible)...
Mr. DUFFY: And when you go online to give money to Barack Obama, you have to
certify that you are not a lobbyist on federal issues.
MATTHEWS: So he's maintained his virginity.
Mr. DUFFY: That's right, and I presume he will keep it that way.
MATTHEWS: And this separates him from Hillary. Is she taking pack money?
Mr. DUFFY: She's taking it. She will take lobbying money.
MATTHEWS: And Chris Dodd, people like that are getting a lot of it.
Mr. DUFFY: He won't take lobbying money.
O'DONNELL: He says he wants--the reason there is so much support for his
campaign is because people want to turn the page on this era of small and
destructive politics, as he said.
MATTHEWS: Right.
O'DONNELL: This is that audacity of hope message, that's his vision, that's
his forward-looking...
MATTHEWS: Is this one of these anti-boomer things, Norah, or we want to get
rid of the Clintons, the Bushes, all that crowd 'cause we're tired of them and
we're tired of a certain generation running the country. Speak for your
generation here.
O'DONNELL: Well, listen. Implicit in that message, yes. I mean, I have
asked Barack Obama before in an interview, you know, `Are you criticizing that
there were the 20-plus years of a Clinton and Bush'--what Howard Fineman calls
the double helix of the Clintons and the Bushes--and he says, `Well, I think
the American people want change.' That's what his response is. So, yes,
implicit in that message is it's not a Clinton or Bush who we've had for a
while.
MATTHEWS: And that's why it's so advantageous for him iconically to be this
young, skinny guy, still very young-looking.
Let me ask you, Dan, about the money. I get a little tired of it this week,
people talking about money, because they kept thinking that excludes regular
people from the action. Now we're learning from Cynthia and others that a lot
of regular people are now part of the action. But how do they spend the
money? I'm looking at these February 5th plan. It looks to me, Dan, like,
for the first time in our lives, California, New York, Florida, Texas, New
Jersey, all these states and half the country...
Mr. RATHER: And that's why the money's important.
MATTHEWS: ...are going to have a primary the same day?
Mr. RATHER: And that's why the money's important. All of these are huge
television markets. This will be a banner year for every television station
manager in the 2008...
MATTHEWS: The general managers.
Mr. RATHER: 2007, 2008. Good time for you to ask for a raise but a lot of
the money will go to that. Certainly, too, you have to spend money to get
money and some of the money goes to the money raising. But in the end, the
reason that the ante is about $100 million by the end of this year for each of
candidates is they have to buy all that television time in New York,
California, Florida, Texas where you can't just buy one or two stations. In
many of these states you have to buy 13 to 25 television stations...
MATTHEWS: Mm-hmm.
Mr. RATHER: So that's where a lot of the money goes.
MATTHEWS: So, Cynthia, how does Barack Obama, who's the new kid on the block,
the rookie I call him, maintain his political virginity? I mean, here's a guy
that people in the streets love, all ethnic groups. The crowds are amazing.
Twenty-one thousand in Austin, and another--he just had a big crowd up in New
Hampshire. Can he keep himself the outsider at the same time get into this
trough of money that the other candidates are into?
Ms. TUCKER: I don't think that anybody worries about the money so much.
Where the difficulty will come for him is as soon as the debates start, and he
has to be much more specific on issues. But back to the money, why the money
is so important for Obama, much more so than Senator Clinton and even more so
than John Edwards, there are a lot of people who still don't know anything
about Barack Obama.
MATTHEWS: So he can put ads out there.
Ms. TUCKER: He needs to put ads out there.
MATTHEWS: OK. Let's talk about John Edwards because John Edwards had a week
that would have been heroic if it wasn't compared to the big boys, Obama and
Hillary. He raised $14 million, and everybody thought he was sort of fading,
and now because of the crisis in his family, with Elizabeth's health, and the
interest in him as the third candidate, is he in the running here?
O'DONNELL: Yeah, he is still very tight in the pack, and he is still at the
top of the polls in Iowa, where he's visited there for the past several years
when nobody else even got into the race...
MATTHEWS: What has Iowa got that loves John Edwards? What is that about?
O'DONNELL: Face-to-face time, face-to-face time.
MATTHEWS: Yeah.
O'DONNELL: And I think they like his message, anti-poverty message. It's a
very liberal message. He's been for universal health care before the other
candidates said they were for that, so I think that that resonates. Also,
he's a strong candidate. He's changed a lot since the last election. I mean,
he is a different kind of candidate.
MATTHEWS: How so? Because I've noticed it, too, but how so?
O'DONNELL: He's tougher.
MATTHEWS: He's read a lot. He's read a lot.
O'DONNELL: Yeah. He's read a lot, and I think he's tougher. He's a lot
tougher.
Mr. RATHER: He has a very specific health plan.
MATTHEWS: I agree with both. I think he is much more sophisticated on
foreign issues, and also I think he has an edge.
Mr. RATHER: He's got more specificity in such things as health care, maybe
even the most specific.
MATTHEWS: He's ahead of all of them.
Mr. RATHER: He's ahead of all of them.
MATTHEWS: He has a plan.
RATHER: And what Edwards is doing, like a desperado waiting for a train, that
Hillary Clinton and Obama, by the John Edwards script, battle it out. One of
them survives and then takes on Edwards.
Ms. TUCKER: Yeah.
Mr. RATHER: I would not underestimate him. I'm not saying he's going to get
the nomination...
MATTHEWS: Yeah.
Mr. RATHER: ...but he's still very much a player.
MATTHEWS: So the standoff between Obama and Hillary could create an opening
for him.
Mr. RATHER: Definitely.
Mr. DUFFY: But Edwards is also the script that Obama has to follow.
Remember, in 2003, it was Edwards who came very close to John Kerry on money
at about this stage, and everyone said, `Oh, John Edwards is really going
to'--he never caught up with Kerry, in endorsements and in field organization,
in staff, and certainly he didn't have the experience. So what both Obama
now--where Obama basically has to do with respect to Clinton is catch up on
all those other fronts, all those other measurements, all those other metrics
that are a lot harder than just raising money and you know...
MATTHEWS: OK.
Mr. DUFFY: ...a much tougher thing, take a lot more time.
MATTHEWS: One of the great Dan Ratherisms here is `I wouldn't bet the trailer
on it.' Here's the question--I don't have a trailer yet but when I retire, you
know, I'll have a trailer.
You know, a lot of hearts have been broken in the Democratic Party in the last
30, 40 years. Gene McCarthy, Gary Hart, Paul Tsongas, Howard Dean--all had
that early inspirational gravitas, and everybody in the country said, `Wow,
this guy's got some heart. He's an idealist,' and they all get broken at the
wheel. They all lose to the establishment. The Mondales come along, the
Humphreys and the Clintons, and break their hearts because they're better at
it. Is that going to happen, with Obama?
Ms. TUCKER: It could. I think Obama is vulnerable simply because he's never
run on this big of stage before, and it's very hard to do. Hillary Clinton,
has in essence been through two presidential campaigns before.
MATTHEWS: Right.
Ms. TUCKER: It's much easier for Senator Obama to commit some major gaffe
than for Senator Clinton to do so.
MATTHEWS: OK, let's talk positively. You're Barack Obama. You've raised 25
million, almost all the primary money. You can spend it right away or you can
not spend it. Or raise more money. What should he do the next six months to
beat Hillary?
Ms. TUCKER: He needs to keep doing what he's doing...
MATTHEWS: Money-raising.
Ms. TUCKER: He needs to raise money and be out in front of the crowds.
MATTHEWS: Yeah. Rather, should he engage with Hillary or stay out there
raising crowds and money?
Mr. RATHER: Crowds and money and keep hitting his most effective theme,
which is `I was against the war from the very beginning.' When you get right
down to it, this is what makes the Hillary Clinton--Senator Clinton's campaign
makes their fingernails sweat. Every time Obama comes up, he says, `I was
against the war before the war started.' And Senator Clinton can't say that,
doesn't say that. And I think if I were Obama, I'd keep hitting that time and
time again. I would raise crowds. Listen, 100,000 people giving money to a
campaign has potency. You talked about the other candidates who sort of
flared up cometlike...(unintelligible)...
MATTHEWS: So if you were a boxer and you were Obama, you'd say keep hitting
the cut...
Mr. RATHER: Exactly.
MATTHEWS: Keep opening it up.
Mr. RATHER: You've opened it up and keep hitting it.
MATTHEWS: OK. Norah, there's going to be a first debate at the end of the
month. Brian Williams at MSNBC--at NBC is going to be handling that. What
are we going to see here. IS John Edwards going to try to break into the top
two? Is Obama going to take on Hillary?
O'DONNELL: Well, I think for the first time you'll see all these guys on a
stage together first of all. You'll get a look of the candidates, which is
always important. People look different when they're standing next to each
other.
MATTHEWS: I love it, don't you, when they're next to each other?
O'DONNELL: Yeah, you get a sense of someone's stature and how they compare
and how they interact with another candidate. Obama tends to be very modest.
I don't think that he'll engage. I think that he wants to kind of lay low
and...
MATTHEWS: So he won't go at her?
O'DONNELL: I don't. It's to Edwards' benefit that he does create some
differences.
MATTHEWS: That he goes for one of the two.
O'DONNELL: That's how he gets...(unintelligible).
MATTHEWS: Mike, what do you see as the best move for Obama now?
Mr. DUFFY: Well, I think the Clintons are going to come after him hard. And
I think the trick will be in addition to...
MATTHEWS: Are they going to do it under the radar? Are they going to put out
bad words?
Mr. DUFFY: I think typically they do both, and he'll have to both raise the
money, get out there in public, but also maintain his poise because they're
going to come after him. Wet behind the ears will be the line.
MATTHEWS: And they will go after him the other way, too, I think. Before we
break, all this talk this week about fund raising reminds us that some poor
candidates have to actually advertise themselves to convince us that they can
lead the country, but for Fred Thompson, acting like a take-charge guy, this
is part of the job. He's played the role of a tough-as-nails DA, a
hard-charging White House chief of staff, CIA director, president of the
United States. The lowest rank he's ever had in the movies is admiral. So
how'd Thompson get this amazing fictional resume? Part of it's because the
man projects authority. Take a look at him in that cinema classic "Die Hard
2," playing an air traffic controller in the middle of a terrorist attack.
(Clip from "Die Hard 2")
MATTHEWS: Talk about the daddy of..(unintelligible). He sure acts like a
leader. Anyway, when we come back, we'll take a look at Fred Thompson and at
Mitt Romney, two conservatives vying to take on McCain and Giuliani.
Plus scoops and predictions. Right from the notebooks of these top reporters.
Tell me something I don't know. Be right back.
(Announcements)
MATTHEWS: Welcome back. It's time for the final candidate in our Eight for
'08 series. Mitt Romney. This was big week for Romney. He raised an
impressive $20 million for his presidential campaign, more than any other
Republican. Romney's been positioning himself as the clean-cut conservative
alternative to John McCain and Rudy Giuliani.
Former Governor MITT ROMNEY: This isn't the time for us to shrink from
conservative principles. It's a time for us to stand in strength because
America faces unprecedented challenges.
MATTHEWS: But so far, Romney's national poll numbers are stuck in the single
digits. Mike, he's had a good week. He's raised a lot of money. He's number
one in the money raising. He's also up there tied, according to the Zogby
Poll, in New Hampshire, his neighboring state. What's the story on Mitt
Romney here right now?
Mr. DUFFY: He's going to have a little bit of a run. How long it lasts
probably depends on how well he performs. It's the first time in the race
that he's really been the sole focus, not on Giuliani, not on McCain. This is
really the first time he gets the action, probably for 10 days, two weeks. He
does have a little bit oomph in the polls. He will get more money obviously.
He had a--it's interesting. He had a conference call on Monday with all of
his fund-raisers. It was listen-only. You couldn't ask him any questions. I
thought it was really interesting.
MATTHEWS: He likes being...(unintelligible).
Mr. DUFFY: Man, I wish I could have conversations like that.
MATTHEWS: It's interesting. Well, this week Romney was caught bragging about
his life as a hunter.
Mr. ROMNEY: I support the Second Amendment. I purchased a gun when I was a
young man. I've been a hunter pretty much all my life.
MATTHEWS: Dan, would you bet the trailer on the fact that this guy's a
hunter? According to his press secretary, he's only hunted twice in his life.
He got caught here bragging about a lifestyle and a commitment, an avocation
he apparently hasn't had.
Mr. RATHER: Well, Exhibit A of what can happen in a campaign has happened
before with Senator Obama and the possibility of one small slip, magnified so
greatly, obviously, this was a big mistake. We understand why he made it. He
was trying to play to the gun constituency in the base Republican Party but a
big mistake. I've never quite known what to make of the Mitt Romney campaign.
It's pretty hard for me to see him making what I call the Southern turn and
doing very well. The...
MATTHEWS: But does this play into the concern people have that he's just
grooming himself. That he really isn't a conservative...
Mr. RATHER: Yes.
MATTHEWS: That he really is pro-choice.
Mr. RATHER: Plays into it.
MATTHEWS: That he--Norah...
O'DONNELL: Well, the Democratic National Committee said after this incident,
he'll say anything to get elected, and this is an example of him trying to say
anything to get elected. He claims he's a lifelong hunter, yet he's only
hunted twice in his life, once when he was 15 and then once in the past year
or two, and they say that's the same thing. You know, he was pro-choice when
he was, you know, running for office in Massachusetts, and now he's pro-life.
`Where is the real Mitt Romney' will be the phrase...
MATTHEWS: OK.
O'DONNELL: ...that some people--not only from his Republican opponents but if
he becomes the nominee, from his Democratic...(unintelligible)...
MATTHEWS: I have the sense, Mike, that the conservatives are still shopping.
Mr. DUFFY: They're looking.
MATTHEWS: Is Fred Thompson a reality here? Is his background in the movies,
his background in the Senate, is he--a Southerner--is he the guy?
Mr. DUFFY: Well, it's unlikely that a
prosecutor-turned-actor-turned-politician-turned-actor-turned-politician is
going to light their fire but it is possible that if John McCain continues to
dissolve, that there is an opportunity for someone. He's a little bit of a
maverick, you know, he was in the Senate--he was for--he was against tort
reform, but he was a bear about states rights. So there are some unusual
handholds if he decides he wants this, which I think is still unclear.
MATTHEWS: Cynthia, is he a factor?
Ms. TUCKER: I think that there will be some conservatives who will try to
persuade him to run because they're not happy with anybody yet.
MATTHEWS: Dynamite. I think that's it. We put it to the Matthews Meter,
twelve of our regular panelists, who will end up the conservative alternative
to McCain and Giuliani. They say it's Mitt Romney still, with nine votes.
Three say Thompson.
Norah, you're still with Romney, that he will end up as the conservative
alternative to Giuiliani and McCain.
O'DONNELL: Mitt Romney is trying to position himself now as the fiscal
conservative in the race. He thinks that he's spent enough time on the social
issues, that they don't want to spend anymore time on that, so they're talking
about fiscal issues. He's got a new ad out on that. And it's not clear that
while Fred Thompson certainly has the movie star looks and credentials that he
could--that he really wants to do it.
Mr. RATHER: I think Thompson is undervalued stock.
MATTHEWS: OK. I think so, too.
We'll be right back with scoops and predictions right out of the notebooks of
these top reporters. Tell me something I don't know. Be right back.
(Announcements)
MATTHEWS: Cynthia, tell me something I don't know.
Ms. TUCKER: Chris, if violent crime continues to rise, it could be the
sleeper issue in the next presidential campaign. It's not just a ghetto issue
anymore. The middle class has moved back into major cities, made major
investments, and because of the example set by President Clinton, who
supported local law enforcement, they will expect a presidential candidate to
have an answer for that problem.
MATTHEWS: Wow! Dan Rather:
Mr. RATHER: Fred Thompson gets in on the Republican side, only thing that
could possibly keep him out is he's making a lot money on the outside. Has a
chance to succeed Paul Harvey, which is big money, but I think he's in. And
Al Gore is thinking seriously about doing it. He's beginning to lose weight.
He's...
MATTHEWS: I hear he's made a commitment to a friend for a crash course to
lose 40 pounds right away.
Mr. RATHER: Well, the prosecution rests, your honor.
MATTHEWS: I'm just another thought person here.
O'DONNELL: Some are raising questions about how Senator Hillary Clinton could
walk into this presidential race with a database of 250,000 donors and only
get contributions from 50,000 donors whereas Barack Obama got contributions
from 100,000 donors. Did she not tap the entire database yet? What does that
mean about the future of her candidacy?
MATTHEWS: Michael:
Mr. DUFFY: Well, politics' longest-running political buddy movie, the
friendship between Bill Clinton and George Herbert Walker Bush is about to
come to an end. They're giving a commencement speech next month in New
Hampshire, but they've decided that the friendship should not be continued in
public during the 2008 campaign. So some things are good for the dynasties in
off-season, not during a campaign.
MATTHEWS: I'll be right back with this week's big question: Will George Bush
cut a winning deal with Congress on immigration this year?
(Announcements)
MATTHEWS: Welcome back. The big question. Monday, George Bush goes to
Arizona to push immigration reform. My question today: Will George Bush cut
a winning deal with Congress on immigration? Cynthia:
Ms. TUCKER: Yes, but with little Republican support.
MATTHEWS: Dan Rather:
Mr. RATHER: Yes, with little Republican support. Probably a deal he
wouldn't have signed a year, year and a half ago, but he's looking to legacy.
Immigration could be a big one for him. And the answer's yes.
MATTHEWS: Norah:
O'DONNELL: Yes. It's his one opportunity for compromise with the Democrats.
MATTHEWS: It will happen.
Mr. DUFFY: Yes, $150 billion over 10 years was the price of the one last
time. It will be more this time because Democrats will jack it up.
MATTHEWS: So we'll have an immigration bill this year.
Thanks for a great round table. Cynthia Tucker, Dan Rather, Norah O'Donnell
and Mike Duffy.
