Transcripts
Weekend of August 5, 2007


Announcer: This is THE CHRIS MATTHEWS SHOW. Today...

CHRIS MATTHEWS, host:

How can the Democrats lose? Americans don't like George Bush, they hate the
war, they see the country going in the wrong direction and they want change.
Is there anything that'll stop the Democrats?

October surprise. Would an 11th hour terror strike change everything? Would
it underline the Republican image of strength, or explode it?

And finally, the return of Ben Cartwright. Is Fred Thompson the big daddy who
can save the family ranch?

Hi. I'm Chris Matthews. Welcome to the show.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Interview: Kelly O'Donnell of NBC News, Howard Fineman of
Newsweek, Gloria Borger of US News & World Report and David Brooks
of The New York Times discuss Republicans' attitude toward Bush,
Republicans' chances for the White House, how the Democrats should
proceed in the race, Tell Me Something I Don't Know and The Big
Question
CHRIS MATTHEWS, host:

Kelly O'Donnell covers the White House for NBC News. Howard Fineman's senior
Washington correspondent for Newsweek. Gloria Borger writes a column for U.S.
News & World Report. And David Brooks is a columnist for The New York Times
and an analyst on "The News Hour."

First up when things get even darker for the White House, the talk among
Washington Republicans is that '08 just won't be their year. After any
party's had the White House for two terms, it's always hard for them to keep
it. There have been a few exceptions. A popular wartime president, FDR, won
re-election to not only a third but a fourth term. Harry Truman, who became
president when FDR died, was re-elected in 1948. And 40 years later, the
elder George Bush was elected after two terms of Ronald Reagan and after the
destruction of Michael Dukakis.

But take a look at the way the deck is stacked against Republicans this time
around. Bush's approval numbers are in the basement. Polls show a majority
calling the Iraq war a mistake and, overwhelmingly, people say the country's
on the wrong track. They want change. Democrats know it.

Senator BARACK OBAMA: Change has to be more than a slogan.

Senator HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON: ...ready for change.

Mr. JOHN EDWARDS: Bold change.

Senator CHRISTOPHER DODD: Change in the country.

Sen. OBAMA: Bottom-up change.

Sen. CLINTON: Are you ready for change in America?

MATTHEWS: Do you get it, Howard?

Mr. HOWARD FINEMAN (Newsweek Senior Washington Correspondent): I think so.

MATTHEWS: Well, how can they lose with this if all the polls show we want
change, and they're offering it?

Mr. FINEMAN: If they can't win this one, the Democrats deserve to go the way
of the Whigs, which is a political party that disappeared. Now why did it
disappear? It disappeared because it couldn't deal with the biggest issue of
the time, which was slavery.

MATTHEWS: Right.

Mr. FINEMAN: So I'm thinking, what's the issue this time that could render
the Democrats useless to history? And the answer is--if there is one, the
answer is terrorism. And who is dehumanizing whom. Is it the terrorists who
are dehumanizing us or we who are refusing to view them as real people? And
unless the Democrats can figure out an answer on foreign policy, then there is
a chance they could blow it, despite all of what you said.

MATTHEWS: Open question.

Inside the White House which you cover every day and you hear all the whispers
and worries and sweats and everything over there, do they believe this is just
not their year next year, that this is one of those times you just got to live
with change?

Ms. KELLY O'DONNELL (NBC White House Correspondent): Well, there's certainly
frustration, and it bubbles over frequently. But event-driven. If there
were, God forbid, another attack or something that would put a spotlight
again, terrorism, national security issues, that would drive that issue again
toward Republicans, away from Democrats, that could mix things up. And not
that Republicans in the White--in the White House are thinking that will
happen, but they know that events are so beyond everyone's control that that
could make a difference. So they're not totally resigned to a loss.

MATTHEWS: David, you got a meeting there, you got in a little briefing with
the president in the Roosevelt room. Do you have a sense that he's as
confident of his electoral chances for the party of being replaced by a
Republican as he is of his general philosophy about fighting terrorism?

Mr. DAVID BROOKS (The New York Times): He's confident about himself. I'm
not sure he's confident about the rest of the party. His vision is always 50
years out. I think the White House is pretty removed from the campaign and
vice versa. The mood in the--in the--among Republicans in this country is
pretty pessimistic, though. And, you know, I covered the end of British
conservative party rule after Thatcher and John Major. To me, the Republican
Party feels just like that. Bad poll numbers, intellectual exhaustion...

MATTHEWS: End of the game.

Mr. BROOKS: ...lots of scandals. I really think you could be looking at 10
years of Republican minority.

MATTHEWS: Really? You believe that?

Mr. BROOKS: Yeah, I just--it has a feel of exhaustion, and you--and maybe
somebody will it turn around with some sort of renewal, renaissance, but so
far I really haven't seen that.

Ms. GLORIA BORGER (U.S. News and World Report): You know, you don't
really...

MATTHEWS: Gloria.

Ms. BORGER: You haven't really heard those ideas yet, but the Republicans I
talked to out on the campaign trail say this is going to an fight between
whose change is better? `Is my change better than your change?' Let's see the
kind of change the Democrats are offering, and then let's talk about the
changes that the Republicans are offering. It's a really fine line they've
got to walk because they have to distance themselves, obviously, from George
W. Bush. They have to be independent. They have to be change agents.

MATTHEWS: Ah.

Ms. BORGER: But they have to say what kind of changes the other guy's
offering you.

MATTHEWS: OK. Let's get to it. We all sort of agree that this is a country
that wants change. It's in all the numbers. Everybody--just ask anybody.
They don't like the way things are going. Could the Republicans credibly be
offering next time--by this time next year--a real change from Bush?

Mr. FINEMAN: Well, the interesting thing, Chris, is they have the
opportunity to do it because it's an unusual situation where the vice
president is not a factor politically.

MATTHEWS: Right.

Mr. FINEMAN: Dick Cheney isn't running for anything which, of course, gives
Dick Cheney a lot of scary freedom in people's eyes, but he's not there to be
an impediment to change. If the Republicans can figure out some way to
triangulate as, you know, the Clintons used to do, and find somebody who can
stand for change in the Republican context, maybe. But I agree with...

MATTHEWS: But would he stand for that?

Ms. O'DONNELL: I think he wants to leave some sort of legacy to the party,
and as David says, he's got the 50-year view. But if he can back away and let
a Republican say, `Not only is my change going to work, but I'll be more
competent delivering it,' that may be the thing.

MATTHEWS: OK, well, let's imagine this.

Mr. BROOKS: No, wait, wait, wait, wait.

MATTHEWS: Let's imagine it. Let's imagine this. Let's imagine this, David.
The president looks at all the three or four guys that really are the
front-runners on the Republican side now. A Rudy, could he say, `I'm going to
fight terrorism in a different way than the president'? Could a Romney say
`This is really about efficiency, not philosophy.' Could a Thompson come along
and offer a different view? Would he stand by and let them sell that?

Mr. BROOKS: Bush--you got to remember a lot of Republicans hate Bush. I
mean, we look at--we talk about the Democrats, how they hate Bush, in
private...

MATTHEWS: What do you mean by "hate Bush"?

Mr. BROOKS: They think Bush is incompetent and is destroying their party.
The atmosphere...

MATTHEWS: Are you talking about county chairmen, governors...

Mr. BROOKS: I'm talking about county chairmen, I think people who work in
the campaigns. I was just up in New Hampshire. The questions were--the
questions, `We've got a draft dodger in the White House.' These were
Republicans talking about a Republican. `We've got to restore some honesty to
the White House.' Republican talking about a Republican president. The
atmosphere in the Republican Party is not pro-Bush, and I don't think
the--that they're waiting around for him to determine how they're going to
run.

Ms. BORGER: Exactly.

MATTHEWS: You make it sound like he won't even get invited to the Republican
convention. You make it sound he won't even get Monday night till 9:30.

Mr. BROOKS: They're...(unintelligible)...and private. But talk to
Republicans in--on Capitol Hill...

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Mr. BROOKS: ...talk to Republicans around the country, he's not running the
Republican Party.

Ms. BORGER: But they--but they have to differentiate themselves from Bush
and they have to differentiate themselves from the Democrats, and they're
going to--and they're going to do both. And Bush may be less of a factor.

MATTHEWS: But...

Mr. FINEMAN: To able to do what we're talking about here requires new ideas.

Ms. BORGER: Yes.

Mr. FINEMAN: And as David says, there is a sense of exhaustion in the
Republican Party and the conservative movement which, after all, took 30, 40
years to build to the kind of summa that was George W. Bush.

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Mr. FINEMAN: I don't hear those ideas.

Mr. BROOKS: Right...(unintelligible).

MATTHEWS: OK. David.

Ms. BORGER: (Unintelligible).

Mr. FINEMAN: I don't hear those ideas.

Mr. BROOKS: I think the key is you can't go toe to toe, if you're a
Republican, on policy. You have to make to about politics and how politics
works.

MATTHEWS: OK.

Mr. BROOKS: And you have to say, `I'm against all those policies.'

MATTHEWS: Let's talk about the Democrats are up to, because they're not
running against Brand X Democrats. Right now in the polling, you see Hillary
in number one, you see Obama number two. If either of those run, is that an
odd thing? Here the Democrats--everybody says to your face, a really good
option to win, a really good chance to win. Why do they want to throw in a
risk factor like gender or race or ethnicity? Why do they want to risk a
candidate who might lose an easy one?

Ms. BORGER: Well, I think they don't think it's a risk. I think that they
think Hillary Clinton is a very strong candidate, growing stronger out there
on the campaign trail. I think they think Barack Obama is this vessel into
which people pour their hopes and their dreams. And sure, there's a risk with
any candidate.

MATTHEWS: OK.

Ms. BORGER: There's a risk with anyone. But, Chris, there's a good...

MATTHEWS: No. There's not a risk as much.

Let me ask you this, the first woman president in history, the first commander
in chief in a wartime situation. Do you think that's a risk?

Ms. O'DONNELL: Well...

MATTHEWS: Politically?

Ms. Ms. O'DONNELL: ...it certainly will be the kind of gut check moment for
people when they're voting. Are they ready to make that commitment?

MATTHEWS: I agree.

Ms. O'DONNELL: It's easy to be excited on the campaign trail for both
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. John Edwards keeps hoping that they'll
still want a return to a Southern white male.

Mr. FINEMAN: You know...

MATTHEWS: Come December.

Mr. FINEMAN: Yes.

Ms. O'DONNELL: Yes.

Mr. FINEMAN: But among the two front-runners, ironically, Barack Obama helps
Hillary Clinton in that regard, in terms of social change. I think, at this
point in our history, people may be more willing to accept a woman who talks
tough and sounds as much like Golda Meir as she does Hillary Clinton...

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Mr. FINEMAN: ...than an African-American candidate. It think that's
possible...

MATTHEWS: So she's become--yeah, go ahead, David:

Mr. FINEMAN: ...she's the less that wants change.

Mr. BROOKS: I'm with Gloria. In the beginning, they know it's a black man,
a white woman. But once they get to know the person, it's the individual
qualities that have higher salience. So I don't think it's a big risk.

MATTHEWS: If there's a terror attack close to home, like home, before the
election, will that automatically underline the Republicans' claims to
security or will it challenge it, jeopardize it?

Ms. O'DONNELL: Well, it certainly always seems in our history that when that
kind of issue comes forward, people lean to the right, look to the right. And
it's really for Democrats to now try to say they can do it better, and that's
what we hear a lot from Hillary Clinton.

MATTHEWS: Can it--can it--Howard, can it undercut the argument, `We've made
you safe'?

Mr. FINEMAN: I think it can. I think it depends on the particulars. If
it's Osama again, it depends where, who perpetrated and so on. The question
is, are we America or are we Spain? Don't forget in Spain, they were
attacked, they get out of Iraq.

MATTHEWS: They buckled. Right.

Mr. FINEMAN: They buckled. I don't think we buckle, but I do think it
depends on the circumstances.

MATTHEWS: OK.

Mr. FINEMAN: And if the Democrats can show their strength, they can
capitalize on it.

MATTHEWS: One thing we know: The bad guys on the other side are watching our
calendar. Look what they did the last time.

Ms. BORGER: Right.

MATTHEWS: Right before the election they put out that tape. John Kerry, the
Democratic candidate, believed it really hurt him because it...

Ms. BORGER: Yes.

MATTHEWS: ...accentuated the president's strength.

Ms. BORGER: I don't think it's a knee-jerk reaction any more, the way it
used to be that it's going to--it's going to help the Republics, national
security, etc., etc, help. I think that now the public's going to have to
dissect, as you were saying, Howard, the causes of it, could it have been
prevented? Go to the question of, `Are we safer, and did the war in Iraq make
us less safe?'

MATTHEWS: David, I want you to watch the meter now. We put to The Matthews
Meter, 12 of our regular panelists. Is the '08 election the Democrats' to
lose? It's a wipeout. Rarely do we see this perfection, 12 to zip. Everyone
says, yes, it's the Democrats' to lose. In other words, they're probably
going to win easily.

David, you joined the 12 apostles here.

Mr. BROOKS: We must be all wrong. If it's closed in, we're wrong.

Ms. BORGER: Uh-oh.

Mr. BROOKS: But when are the Republicans going to wake up and say, `OK, I'm
going for broke. I'm going to take a chance'? So far, they're running
reasonably conventional campaigns. It's not going to work this time.

MATTHEWS: You're saying they're basically running Dole campaigns.

Mr. BROOKS: Yeah, because it's the issues. It's the traditional
conservative issues, which are fine. But this is not that kind of year. You
got to try something new.

MATTHEWS: By the way, I...(unintelligible)...read your column this week.
That was a tough shot, that the Republicans are running the Bob Dole campaign
in '08.

Mr. BROOKS: I like Bob Dole.

MATTHEWS: I--we all like Bob Dole, but the campaign was terrible.

Anyway, before we go to break, before you can beat the Democrats, you first
got to win the Republican base. And leading the polls among the conservative
base is Fred Thompson. He still hasn't formally said he's running, but polls
show that conservatives like him more than any of people who are actually in
the race formally right now. But how much do Republicans really know about
Thompson, and does he really know what they want? That got to us thinking,
could Thompson and his fans end up like those clueless couples on that old
show called "The Newlywed Game"?

(Clips of "The Newlywed Game," courtesy ABC)

MATTHEWS: And everybody acted like Lucy and Desi back then. Anyway, back to
our point, you're going to be covering Thompson for NBC. Is it possible that
they will be equally clueless, the people who see Thompson in action?

Ms. O'DONNELL: It's one of the big concerns inside Fred world right now is
how to define him...

MATTHEWS: Fred world.

Ms. O'DONNELL: ...how to define him in a way that goes beyond Conservativism
101. What's the message? What would make him stand out, beyond the packaging
of the voice and the presence.

MATTHEWS: We can't wait. When we come back, in fact, we're going to talk
about it. Will Fred Thompson turn out to be the Republicans' man to the
rescue, or are they getting their hopes too high.

Plus scoops and predictions right out of the notebooks of these top reporters.
TELL ME SOMETHING I DON'T KNOW. Be right back.

(Announcements)

MATTHEWS: Welcome back. Republicans are searching for someone who can give
their sagging party a boost for 2008, and many of them think Fred Thompson is
the man to do it. But there's one big conservative who isn't so sure.
Columnist George F. Will recently wrote that Thompson may be, quote, "all
charm, no substance." Will added, quote, "If he, Thompson, did not talk like
central casting's idea of the god Sincerity, would anyone think he ought to be
entrusted with the nation's nuclear arsenal?" Some liberals at Slate magazine
had the same idea. They made up a fake Thompson ad which ends like this:

(Begin clip of Slate Magazine spoof advertisement)

Offscreen Voice: What really has these three looking over their shoulders?

Sen. THOMPSON: (From "Law & Order") You're sure taking on a TV lawyer is not
playing into this at all?

Voice: Fred Thompson. You trust him. Does it matter why?

(End of clip)

MATTHEWS: Well, does it matter why? Because there you had the sound from,
obviously, "Law & Order," that pound of the whatever. Is this going to be a
quick test for him or a long test? In other words, will it be a couple weeks
before we find out whether Fred can match up to the advance here?

Ms. O'DONNELL: The real worry is, can they turn this buzz into being
something substantive and not a quick burnout. And there are signs of
distress. Before he's even made it official, there's been in-fighting within
the campaign structure, people uncomfortable about how decisions are being
made, and that's caused these delays. And they know that there are people
frustrated that he said he would only test the waters for a little while.
It's has been quite a while. He's getting pruny fingers from being in the
water.

MATTHEWS: In show business, David, they say, `Does he fit the costume?' He
fits the costume. He's got the the age, he's got the manner, the confidence,
that Southern drawl, the background, the religion. Is he going to have an
easy time or a hard time matching up to the advance billing here?

Mr. BROOKS: I think so far he's done pretty well. I--you know, one of the
things I was worried about, you know, they're this reputation that before he
was married he was a--he was a womanizer.

MATTHEWS: Hm.

Mr. BROOKS: And he came out with that line that, `I chased women, and women
cased me, and when they chased me they usually caught me.' That is a great
line.

Ms. BORGER: Is that a qualification to be president? I forgot.

Mr. BROOKS: Well, but, it's a great way to handle a situation.

MATTHEWS: That's called hanging a lantern on your problem.

Mr. BROOKS: Yeah, well--but it's a great, deft way to handle the situation.
I think there's--if you go through his record, he has a whole series of deft
ways of handling problems.

MATTHEWS: How does he handle the fact that he lobbies for an abortion rights
group? How does he handle the lobbying history he's had as a--as a
professional?

Mr. BROOKS: Well, that will be a problem. The fact is, he's running as Mr.
Movement Conservative.

Ms. O'DONNELL: Right.

Mr. BROOKS: But he's much closer to McCain and Giuliani in real life. The
one thing he has been with conservatives on through his career, even in good
times and bad, it's his getting power out of Washington. He does genuinely
believe in that.

MATTHEWS: Hm.

Mr. BROOKS: And there may be a market for that.

Ms. BORGER: Yeah, but he...

Mr. FINEMAN: Yeah.

MATTHEWS: But you spent eight years there, Gloria, you covered him.

Ms. BORGER: Yes.

MATTHEWS: He was here as a senator, he was part of the establishment. He
went dinner at the restaurants. He was part of the scene. Can he run as the
outsider legitimately?

Ms. BORGER: Yeah, well, that's...

MATTHEWS: Or will the press tear him apart?

Ms. BORGER: Well, that's what he's--well, both. He's going to run as the
outsider, the press is going to tear him apart. He's got a long record that's
got to be dissected and, you know, this is a fellow who is a moderate guy.

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Ms. BORGER: Evangelicals love him because they're looking for someone.

MATTHEWS: OK.

Ms. BORGER: They don't trust Romney. They don't trust Mccain.

MATTHEWS: OK.

Ms. BORGER: They want Thompson to be...

MATTHEWS: So they need him.

Ms. BORGER: They need him.

MATTHEWS: I agree.

Ms. BORGER: But, you know what?

Ms. O'DONNELL: Hm.

Ms. BORGER: They could turn on him, too.

Mr. FINEMAN: Sure.

MATTHEWS: You know what I think? I think, Howard, he's the most interesting
guy or candidate to watch the next couple of months, the end of the summer,
beginning of fall because if he does well, he could go right to the top.

Mr. FINEMAN: Yeah, as David said, David used a good word with reference to
Thompson. He's deft. And part of his deftness is he takes advantage of
whatever situation he's in. He seems to go with the flow, and that's true in
acting, that's true in the Senate, that's true with everything he's done. It
seems effortless. He's a true guy. I would wonder, though, and worry, if I
were about to be covering Fred world, about whether it's sort of a nicely
designed battle ship that's not going to quite ever slide into the water
because he's got arguments going on inside of his campaign. Some people that
I know who have been associated with it...

MATTHEWS: Right.

Mr. FINEMAN: ...are very dubious about it. Because he's the guy that takes
advantage of situation. When you run for president, that is a crafted,
carefully constructed thing. You can't just sort of draft your way through
it.

MATTHEWS: OK. Bill, let me ask you the question again.

Ms. O'DONNELL: (Unintelligible)..you know...

Mr. FINEMAN: You can't just draft your way through it.

MATTHEWS: That is a great question that you'll have to answer as you cover
him every night for "Nightly." Inside the big shoulders, the height, the
Southern drawl, the background, is there a Fred Thompson there like there was
a Ronald Reagan there? The more we learned about Ronald Reagan--this includes
critics--the more we read of his writings, the more the letter writing and the
diary reading we get, too, the more we realize there really was the real
thing. Is there a real thing behind all this Fred Thompson hype?

Ms. O'DONNELL: Well, that's what we're looking for, and I think he does runs
deep on some narrow issues that are important to conservatives, and he's
spending some of his time...

MATTHEWS: Like what? What are the--what are the gold standards here?

Ms. O'DONNELL: As David mentioned, less government, competent government.
He also definitely says with the new children in his life--you know, he's got
adult children and very tiny children...

MATTHEWS: How about the wife that looks about half his age?

Ms. O'DONNELL: Well, she's 24 years his junior.

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Ms. O'DONNELL: And she's a big factor. She's not only an adviser...

MATTHEWS: Positive or negative?

Ms. O'DONNELL: Well, cuts both ways. People describe her as very smart, but
they also say she is perhaps running too much of this to be a national
campaign.

MATTHEWS: Is this going to bother the first wives club of America, that he's
got this second wife that's so young and cute?

Mr. FINEMAN: He's close to the first wife.

Ms. O'DONNELL: Well, he was divorced for a long time.

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Ms. O'DONNELL: And, yes...

Mr. FINEMAN: There's good terms with his first wife.

Ms. O'DONNELL: And all of the women who've been in his life...

MATTHEWS: Gloria, do you think it hurts him, to have this younger wife?

Ms. BORGER: No, I don't think--I don't think it hurts him.

MATTHEWS: Aren't you getting...(unintelligible).

Ms. BORGER: I don't--no, I don't think it hurts him. But the issue with
Fred Thompson is, you got to show us your stuff already. Get in the race, get
in the debate.

Ms. O'DONNELL: Yes.

MATTHEWS: (Unintelligible)...OK.

Ms. BORGER: You can't run--and you can't run the presidential campaign by
driving around in a red pickup truck.

MATTHEWS: Right.

Ms. BORGER: Which is what he did when we campaigned for Senate.

MATTHEWS: The trouble is he's got to get in that line-up of candidates at
those debates. That's the hardest thing to beat.

Anyway, bottom line, we put it to The Matthews Meter, 12 of our regular
panelists. Will Fred Thompson establish himself as a candidate with substance
rather than simply the least bad option? What a cruel group this is. Eight
say no, he won't be able to do it. Four say he will. And among the eight is
our own Gloria Borger. You have put the knife to this guy.

Ms. BORGER: I am--I am sorry to do that.

MATTHEWS: You will puncture him before he even starts.

Ms. BORGER: I'm sorry to do that, but I did watch him in the Senate for
quite some time, and I don't think...

MATTHEWS: So your verdict is in?

Ms. BORGER: Well, I would never say that, Chris.

MATTHEWS: OK.

Ms. BORGER: But I would--but I would say that Fred Thompson has to show us
his stuff.

Ms. O'DONNELL: Quickly.

Ms. BORGER: Yeah. And we haven't seen it. Come on.

MATTHEWS: You know what? I'm taking a wait-and-see approach, OK?

Ms. BORGER: OK.

MATTHEWS: Because I think he might just deliver. He has all the props, all
the personality traits, he fits the costume. And as somebody said
here--you--the Republicans really want a winner.

Ms. BORGER: Mm-hmm.

MATTHEWS: And he may be it. I'll be back with scoops and predictions right
out of the notebooks of these top reporters. TELL ME SOMETHING I DON'T KNOW.
Be right back.

(Announcements)

MATTHEWS: Welcome back.

Kelly, TELL ME SOMETHING I DON'T KNOW.

Ms. O'DONNELL: Well, it is the season of the political spouse. Bill,
Elizabeth, Michelle, and as we mentioned, Jeri Thompson. The real key will be
can she get out of the way and be the spouse, or will she really be running
the show?

MATTHEWS: Whoa.

Howard:

Mr. FINEMAN: If you haven't had enough New York politics, here's some more.
The governor, Democratic Governor Eliot Spitzer, is going to be in the fight
of his life with a name from the past in the junior form of Andrew Cuomo. The
two are going at it. Andrew Cuomo is attorney general, Spitzer is the
governor. You've just begin to see them fight for control of what's left that
Hillary doesn't already run in New York state.

MATTHEWS: Wow.

Gloria:

Ms. BORGER: Early, early, early contest, Iowa straw poll, the middle of this
month, middle of August. And I think Mitt Romney's spending so much money
there, that if he doesn't win, it's going to be a total embarrassment. Watch
out for Tommy Thompson...

MATTHEWS: I like this. Whoa. OK.

Ms. BORGER: ...spending time there.

MATTHEWS: David:

Mr. FINEMAN: We in the press corps think the McCain campaign is dead because
of all the staff turmoil, but up in New Hampshire, he's drawing big crowds,
enthusiastic, reverential crowds. They're begging him on his staff to raise
some money. The question is whether he wants to do that horrible task.

MATTHEWS: Whoa. I'll be right back with this week's BIG QUESTION. Would
another terror attack close to home help make the president's case for staying
in Iraq in force?

(Announcements)

MATTHEWS: Welcome back. Earlier we talked about how another terrorist strike
could shake up the '08 presidential race, but would another terror attack
close to home make this president's case for sticking in Iraq?

Kelly:

Ms. O'DONNELL: Well, I think some Americans reluctantly might buy that
argument, and others will just be frustrated again that Osama bin Laden has
not been found.

MATTHEWS: Howard:

Mr. FINEMAN: I think we're beyond the tipping point on the war in Iraq with
the American people, and I think they'll see it as a catastrophe that warrants
our getting out.

MATTHEWS: Wow.

Ms. BORGER: I think it would hurt him, because people will say we are not
safer.

Mr. BROOKS: It won't help the war case at all, but it'll shift the debate to
what's our next strategy.

MATTHEWS: Well, that's a good question. Anyway, thanks to a great
roundtable: Kelly O'Donnell, Howard Fineman, Gloria Borger and David Brooks.

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CHRIS MATTHEWS, host:

That's the show. Thanks for watching. See you here next week.