Announcer: This is THE CHRIS MATTHEWS SHOW. Today...
CHRIS MATTHEWS, host:
Batting to center field. Barack Obama has a big hurdle facing him now that
he's on the brink of clinching the nomination. He's struggling with John
McCain over that crucial third of voters who say they're independents. How
does Obama turn from the Democratic race to woo the un-wooed, the folks
outside of either party?
As good as it gets. How has John McCain, the candidate of the Bush party,
sold himself as the un-Bush to so many independents? What can Obama do to prove he's the change they've been waiting for?
Finally, flack attack. Out of nowhere a Bush insider says the president made a dishonest case for the Iraq war. Will the McClellan book leave John McCain a casualty?
Hi, I'm Chris Matthews. Welcome to the show.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Interview: Kelly O'Donnell of NBC News, Richard Stengel of Time,
Cynthia Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Howard
Fineman of Newsweek on how Obama gets independents, how McCain's
managed to distance himself from Bush, and how McClellan's new
book will affect politics; Tell Me Something I Don't Know; Big
Question
CHRIS MATTHEWS, host:
Kelly O'Donnell's been covering the McCain campaign for NBC News. Richard
Stengel is the editor of Time Magazine. Cynthia Tucker's editorial page
editor of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. And Howard Fineman's senior
Washington correspondent for Newsweek and author of the new book "The Thirteen
American Arguments."
First up, the Democrats hash out their differences in Washington while Puerto
Ricans join in the primary fight. Of course, none of it changes the fact that
Obama's on the verge of claiming victory. But next he has to convince the
rest of the electorate that he's the real deal. He's got to become the one
candidate linked to the change voters want. In a recent poll, when asked
which party should lead the country, voters picked Democrats by a huge
21-point margin, but when those same voters were asked to choose between John
McCain and Barack Obama, Obama won by only seven points.
TEXT:
Which Party
Should Lead?
Democrats 53%
Republicans 32%
Which Candidate
Should Lead?
Obama 51%
McCain 44%
Washington Post/ABC News Poll
May 11, 2008
MATTHEWS: So how does Obama boost himself? Well, besides firming up his old
on Democrats, he's going to hone in on that one third of voters who call
themselves independent. Those independents didn't help John Kerry much back
in '04 when they split evenly between Bush and Kerry. But Obama's optimistic
this time.
Senator BARACK OBAMA: (May 14) We're doing really well among independents.
You know, the--there may be concerns among some voters because they don't know
me that well, and I think that the longer we campaign and the better they get
to know me and my agenda, the better we'll do.
MATTHEWS: So this election, Rick Stengel, is going to be decided, as most
are, by those people in the middle, that third, and some of them are those
sort of well-educated National Public Radio types we know and love who think
they're perhaps better than politics. But a lot of them are people that just
have lost interest in politics. They don't even read the papers. How does he
get to them?
Mr. RICHARD STENGEL (Time Managing Editor): You know, independents are not
monolithic. The fastest-growing piece of independents are those independents
who say, `You know what? The heck with politics, the heck with Washington.
I'm not going to align with either one or another.' Obama has lost 10 points
with all independents since March, and that's a bit of a problem. The one
Republican who can do better than him among independents is John McCain, and
Republicans nominated him.
MATTHEWS: Wow, well, he's up against McCain, like it or not. He's got to
beat the guy that the Republicans ended up nominating. And here's the
question, Cynthia, what does he have to put on those bones? What actual
plans, proposals, promises, whatever? Does he have to go to those independent
voters in the middle and say, `OK, you hate politics, but I'm going to do
this. You got to back me.'
Ms. CYNTHIA TUCKER (Atlanta Journal-Constitution Editorial Page Editor):
Well, the first thing he has to do is tie McCain effectively to George Bush.
One of the reasons that McCain does so well among independents is that he has
been helped by the base of his own party. A few times over the years he's
disagreed with the Republican Party orthodoxy. The base hates that.
MATTHEWS: Yeah.
Ms. TUCKER: And they have labeled him a maverick, somebody who's not really
a Republican. But if you look at McCain's voting record, it has actually
hewed to George Bush's policies very closely. So what Obama has to do is
remind voters of that.
MATTHEWS: Let me ask you this, these independent voters--you know, John
Kerry, you would think, being a change candidate, you know, in '04 would have
done a bit better. The country was getting a little restive about the war in
Iraq already. This time around, does he have to do better?
Mr. HOWARD FINEMAN: Well, of course. There--independent voters are the
weather vane, they're the deciders, they're the real deciders. John Kerry
came off, I think, as a little too much of politics as usual even though he
was offering a change on the war, even though he was a Democrat, even though
George Bush was beginning to lose popularity. Kerry read like politics as
usual to too many people. Obama's main message, and it's been the message
from the beginning, is `I am not politics as usual.' Now, his race has helped
him make that case. He's an outsider. He's from Chicago. Barely been in the
Senate. Represents a new generation. Represents a new way of raising
money...
MATTHEWS: Yeah.
Mr. FINEMAN: ...on the Internet and so forth. He's got to keep driving
that. The risk is he's run on his biography, he's run on his being. And now
the Republicans are going to attack that biography because he doesn't have
that many specific proposals to point to.
MATTHEWS: OK. I want to bring Kelly in on this because she's been covering
McCain. Let's look more closely at how those independents are tilting at this
very point. Just in the past month Obama--look at the loss here--has lost
significant ground among independent voters, those who don't like either
party, and McCain's moved up. Look how they're even now. How come he's
done--how has McCain managed? He's got that big label that says Republican on
him. How does he--let's take a look right now.
Senator JOHN McCAIN: (May 13) I have made some Republicans mad in the past,
and I may make them mad now, but my job is to do what I know is best for this
nation.
MATTHEWS: Can he walk that line between a loyal Republican who raises money
with Bush? He was seen in the car with him this week...
Ms. TUCKER: Yes.
Ms. KELLY O'DONNELL (NBC Political Correspondent): Yes.
MATTHEWS: ...for 26 seconds, I think; and also being an independent. Can he
do both?
Ms. O'DONNELL: Well, he's been trying to do it in a way that they say--you
know, this is a chain of command guy. Remember, he's a military man, so he's
going to be respectful to the president to a certain degree. That works with
some people. But over and over again, we get these subtle digs that he does
give to the Bush administration and to Republicans more generally, and I think
what he is trying to say--we heard a new phrase in just the last several days,
a record of change vs. rhetoric of change. They're going to try to argue
that he has taken the knocks for going against his party on a number of
issues, still making some angry, when you look at global warming or
immigration. That still riles up Republicans at events that McCain holds. So
they're going to try to say he may not be as dynamic and interesting and as
gifted a politician as Barack Obama, but he's got a background that says he's
willing to take on a fight.
MATTHEWS: Well, you're writing a piece about it this week.
Mr. STENGEL: Right.
MATTHEWS: How can McCain honestly claim he's a departure from Bush?
Mr. STENGEL: Well, here's the thing. I mean, the Democrats will run on this
is a third Bush term.
MATTHEWS: Right.
Mr. STENGEL: No matter what McCain does, and McCain's appeal to independents
is interesting because it breaks down with, you know, he's separated himself
from Republicans on the environment, on gay marriage, on things like that.
But in this election, people are not going to be voting on that. They're
voting on the economy. They're voting on Iraq. They're voting on health
care, and in all of those three areas, McCain is aligned with Bush. That is
what the Democrats will say.
Mr. FINEMAN: Yeah, but...
MATTHEWS: But the Republicans are going to say--they're going to exploit the
fact that John McCain comes across as a patriot, a man who served his country,
suffered for his county as a POW, and this guy Obama, we don't know who hangs
around with him. Who is this guy? There's some murkiness there that seems to
be hurting him in these polls.
Ms. TUCKER: Absolutely. Obama has already suffered from pastor eruptions.
MATTHEWS: How many has he got?
Ms. TUCKER: He has had--he has had Wright. Now he's got another small
pastor problem.
MATTHEWS: He's got a Catholic one now.
Mr. STENGEL: Yeah.
Ms. TUCKER: And he's also--let's face it--he's dinged up by the long primary
struggle with Senator Clinton, and that was inevitable that, you know, at
first he was bright, shiny and new; and for independents, they could just
fill--he was an empty vessel that they could fill as they wanted. The long
primary campaign has defined him in some ways that were negative, so he's lost
independents on that score. Will Republicans continue to hammer those things
that are negative? Absolutely. What Obama has to do--so far, he has allowed
McCain to set the agenda. Foreign policy...
MATTHEWS: Yeah, like go visit Iraq.
Ms. TUCKER: Iraq.
MATTHEWS: `You get over there. I'm going to count the days till you get
there.'
Ms. TUCKER: Absolutely.
Ms. O'DONNELL: How did they push him into that corner?
Ms. TUCKER: He has got to manage...
MATTHEWS: He did. Didn't he win? Didn't he win?
Ms. TUCKER: Well...
MATTHEWS: Wasn't that a smart tactic put out by the Republicans to get
Obama--say, `yeah, I'll get over there pretty soon.'
Ms. O'DONNELL: And they're counting the days now. It's well over 800 days
since Obama was last in Iraq, and this is a corner that we didn't expect
McCain would be able to push Obama into and he's done so pretty effectively.
MATTHEWS: And he doesn't like Obama, does he?
Ms. O'DONNELL: On a personal level, one could discern that he may not like
him.
Mr. FINEMAN: No, they don't like him. They don't--they don't like each
other, as a matter of fact, because McCain and--Obama offered to link arms
with McCain on a campaign finance reform bill, and from McCain's point of
view, Obama welshed on the deal. And McCain--everything's personal with
McCain.
MATTHEWS: Character issues.
Ms. TUCKER: Right.
Mr. FINEMAN: And also for these independent voters, these are not
ideological voters. Americans aren't ideological to begin with, but certainly
the independents are less so. Democrats have a Democratic agenda in their
mind about health care, about the war, etc. Republicans have their own
ideological agenda. One of the things that defines independent voters is that
they look to character.
Ms. TUCKER: Right.
Mr. FINEMAN: They look to personality. Now that's been a tremendous benefit
to Obama so far, but, as I say, you live by the bio and you are at risk
because of the bio, and if people don't know Obama, as he said on that
airplane there, the Republicans are rushing to fill it in. It's now a race
for time...
MATTHEWS: OK.
Mr. FINEMAN: ...to fill in the rest of the biography of Obama. He's not
running on eight specific proposals. He's not running on a 10-point plan.
He's not running on some unique proposal.
MATTHEWS: OK. (Unintelligible).
Mr. FINEMAN: Yeah.
MATTHEWS: Cynthia, we're getting now to the old--the old question, Martin
Luther King. Not by the color of your skin, by the content of your character.
Isn't it interesting this campaign may get to that? It may get there. Who's
the good person here?
Ms. TUCKER: Well, it's--it is not at all surprising that this campaign would
go there. First of all, I think that more than independents vote on
personality and character.
Ms. O'DONNELL: Sure.
Ms. TUCKER: I think that Democrats do, Republicans do. Let's face it...
MATTHEWS: I do. I'll admit it.
Ms. TUCKER: Yeah.
Mr. STENGEL: You're independent.
MATTHEWS: Yeah, I care about these--who it is.
Ms. TUCKER: For about 20 years now voters have favored the Democrats on
domestic issues, yet Democrats haven't been winning. Clearly, voters didn't
like John Kerry enough to vote for him or to elect him as president. So yes,
we're going to see character played out in lots of different ways.
Personality and, interestingly, who's the real American here? Obama, in
addition to being black, let's face it, has a funny name, foreign-sounding.
There are all these questions about whether or not he's a Muslim. In the past
he wasn't wearing a flag pin that much. Interestingly, now he's starting to
wear the flag pin more, so we're going to see all of those issues come out
more and more as the campaign moves forward.
MATTHEWS: But he's not a Muslim. (Unintelligible). Bottom line, we asked
The Matthews Meter, 12 of our regulars, in November, will McCain hold his
strength among independents? Well, the group said not likely. Eleven-to-one
the meter says no, McCain will not hold the same levels he has right now among
independents. Howard, you were part of the 11. What's weighing him down
between now and November?
Mr. FINEMAN: What's weighing him down is the Bush legacy, and no matter how
much McCain tries to triangulate on global warming or on diplomacy vs. use of
force, McCain himself has doubled down on Iraq. He said, `We're there; we're
there for the long haul.' And he's right that there are mixed views in America
about how quickly to withdraw, but that's a briar patch he's going to get into
that's going to provide him with a lot of trouble between now and then with
the independents.
MATTHEWS: Is Bush a sinker for him?
Mr. STENGEL: I think it can weigh him down in such a way that he might never
be able to resurrect himself. Plus, Obama is going to start to paint McCain.
One of this--things that these independent polls showed is that people
actually don't know a whole lot about John McCain.
Ms. TUCKER: Right.
Mr. STENGEL: He's been around for 30 years, but Obama can start to paint him
and say, `You know what? You think he's a maverick? You think he's
different? In fact, he's just like all of these other guys that you don't
like.'
MATTHEWS: I've interviewed him 500 times, I think. I think I know him pretty
well.
Mr. STENGEL: (Unintelligible)...Chris. (Unintelligible).
MATTHEWS: Before we break, Scott McClellan, the former Bush spokesman, who
seemed to fade into obscurity there for a while, came back with a bang this
week. Sure, he blasted his former boss for using propaganda to sell the war
in Iraq, but he also accused the media of failing to aggressively question the
Bush push toward war. Not that the administration would have come clean
anyway. After all, McClellan himself was a master deflector. Here he was
deflecting questions during that CIA leak case with a single stock line.
Mr. SCOTT McCLELLAN: (July 12, 2005) I don't think it's helpful for me, from
this podium, to get into discussing what is an ongoing investigation.
An ongoing investigation.
What is an ongoing investigation?.
The investigation is continuing.
An ongoing, continuing investigation.
MATTHEWS: An ongoing investigation. In fact, McClellan said that so much it
became an ongoing joke. Just look at how "Saturday Night Live" gave him--and
me--the treatment back in '05.
(Begin clip of "Saturday Night Live")
Unidentified Actor #1: (As Chris Matthews) Joining us is White House press
secretary Scott McClellan.
I've been watching your press conferences. You look as lost as a dyslexic kid
at a spelling bee. This past week Vice President Cheney's been campaigning to
exempt the CIA from certain Geneva Convention rules regarding the
interrogation of prisoners. Is this the administration's way of tacitly
endorsing torture or what?
Unidentified Actor #2: (As Scott McClellan) Chris, I can't comment on our
ongoing efforts to protect the American people, as they are ongoing.
Likewise, we can't comment on efforts that were at one time ongoing and have
now ceased to be ongoing. Or efforts that are ongoing that will stop going on
then at a later date will continue to be ongoing. It's just something I can't
comment on.
(End of clip)
MATTHEWS: Kelly, is it that bad? Was he like that?
Ms. O'DONNELL: Well, day by day by day, there was this reflexive quality.
You could almost see the words forming on his lips, and it was maddening at
times. You knew he was going to always go to that sort of safe base when
you'd ask certain questions. And now, looking back, one of the most
interesting things is that he felt so differently.
MATTHEWS: OK. Am I as bad as...(unintelligible). Anyway, when we come back,
just when Barack Obama's about to burst out of the primaries and try to pin
the Bush tail on the McCain donkey, could Scott McClellan's new book be
McCain's pain and Obama's bonanza? Plus, scoops and predictions right out of
the notebooks of these top reporters, TELL ME SOMETHING I DON'T KNOW. Be
right back.
(Announcements)
MATTHEWS: Welcome back.
Big news and tough words from former Bush spokesman Scott McClellan this week.
He says the President misled the American people and used political propaganda
to make the case for the Iraq war. Why speak up now? Well, McClellan says
it's all about the election coming up in November when Iraq will be front and
center. So could McClellan's book actually influence this election? Could it
end up hurting McCain, the hawk in this race? Well, one thing's for sure,
McCain's keeping his distance from this book.
Sen. McCAIN: (Wednesday) I was not working in the White House. I had tried
to be working in the White House, but I had not succeeded. So I don't know,
and I have not read the book so I can't make additional comment.
MATTHEWS: `Not my job.'
Ms. O'DONNELL: I asked him that, Chris, and he--I think he knew that
question was coming and I pressed him on a couple of points, you know, even
just simply that Iraq is so unpopular, and he will stick to his guns, that he
believes the war was a just war, but more and more he is hammering the
president for mismanagement. And I noticed something the other day when he
was questioned by someone who, by virtue of the question appeared to be
someone...
MATTHEWS: Yeah.
Ms. O'DONNELL: ...not in McCain's camp, asking him about no surrender, and
he said, `No one hates war more than a veteran,' which distinguishes him both
from the president and from Obama.
MATTHEWS: Yeah. The interesting thing, Howard, is that all the trashing of
McClellan by the White House loyalists, and they've been very well arrayed
against him, nobody's really challenged the point of the book, which was there
was a dishonesty in selling the war, that there was a lot of heavy-handed
stuff used against the Wilsons in the CIA leak case, right? And the vice
president played a leading role in that.
Mr. FINEMAN: Well, Dan Bartlett, the former communications director,
said--did say that if he thought that propaganda had been used, he wouldn't be
there. He wouldn't have been there.
MATTHEWS: Right.
Mr. FINEMAN: But for the most part, they've portrayed Scott McClellan as
though he'd been taken over by the pod people.
Ms. O'DONNELL: Yes.
Mr. FINEMAN: And that he was a robot for some academic leptus in New York...
MATTHEWS: OK. Will that diffuse the...
Mr. FINEMAN: I don't think it--I don't think it's a problem for McCain so
much because Bush's numbers are already in the--in the--in the toilet, and the
views on the war complicate it.
Mr. STENGEL: Because it confirms what people already think about the war.
For people who are against it, it says, `Yes, I was right all along.' What we
have to discount is the American public know that it is a truth universally
acknowledged if you have a new book and you're from the administration, you
have to point fingers and reveal a scandal. People discount for that. They
say, `Look, I know this guy has to do that, and therefore I trust it...
MATTHEWS: Really?
Mr. FINEMAN: ...a little bit less than I might otherwise.'
MATTHEWS: Will this change the people's view of the war? Will they say now,
like in the tobacco industry, will they say, `Now we got an insider that says
they've been hyping their case'?
Ms. TUCKER: No. The American people have long since accepted the idea that
we were sold this war on false pretenses. That's one of the reasons they
turned against it and turned against the Bush administration. So they have
already absorbed that bit of information.
MATTHEWS: OK. What about the personal thing in this that really hit a lot of
people--you know a lot of these people from day-to-day coverage--the fact that
Scott McClellan, even though he's tough on the administration, says, `I
believe that if the president knew this war was going to lead to all these
casualties, he wouldn't have taken us there.'
Ms. O'DONNELL: The crystal ball effect.
MATTHEWS: Yeah.
Ms. O'DONNELL: That's something you don't hear from people who work closely
at the White House and around the president, so for McClellan to give voice to
that idea, is something that's a bit different, and someone who, you
know--it's been so much about loyalty, that McClellan was really a Bush guy...
MATTHEWS: Yeah.
Ms. O'DONNELL: ...for a long time, and I always felt that he didn't want to
leave that job. He was tearful in leaving it. So now to see him so critical
is really a turn.
MATTHEWS: He protects the president in this book.
Mr. STENGEL: He hardly exonerates the president because it's like saying if
you knew it was going to turn out so badly...
Ms. O'DONNELL: Oh, of course. Sure.
Mr. STENGEL: You wouldn't have done it, as opposed to whether it was
ideologically right in the first place.
MATTHEWS: He treats him like Ronald Reagan, a man removed, detached, not
really involved in running the place.
Mr. FINEMAN: But the bottom line is, it certainly is no help to George Bush
in any way, shape or form.
Ms. O'DONNELL: That's for sure.
MATTHEWS: And he's no fan of Dick Cheney's, I'll tell you that.
I'll be right back with scoops and predictions right out of the notebooks of
these top reporters, TELL ME SOMETHING I DON'T KNOW. Be right back.
(Announcements)
MATTHEWS: Welcome back.
Kelly, TELL ME SOMETHING I DON'T KNOW.
Ms. O'DONNELL: Well, Chris, you know McCain's been getting a lot of heat for
not having a thematic message, not making the most of his head start.
Advisers say they've been holding back because they know all the attention's
on Obama and Hillary. So we'll have to see if they actually come up with
something once that race is determined.
MATTHEWS: Unleash John McCain. OK.
Richard?
Mr. STENGEL: Chris, I was in the Middle East last week, interviewing Tony
Blair and I also saw down with Tzipi Livni, who is the foreign minister from
Israel. Great name, by the way. And she said, to Barack Obama, `If you want
to help yourself with Jewish voters in Florida, come and visit us in Israel.'
MATTHEWS: Cynthia?
Ms. TUCKER: The Republicans believe they don't have to worry about Bob Barr,
the libertarian candidate for president, because they believe that all the
libertarian energy is being sucked up by Ron Paul. He still has a small but
very active, very enthusiastic group of supporters. But in fact, Bob Barr is
in Georgia. He was a congressman from there. If he can get double digits in
Georgia, his own state, then that state is in play for Barack Obama.
MATTHEWS: Howard?
Mr. FINEMAN: Barack Obama strategists are beginning to take a look at how to
conduct the convention in Denver, and besides the obvious stardom of Obama and
his wife, the other big star, assuming his health is good enough, is going to
be Teddy Kennedy. It's going to be all about Teddy and the Kennedy legacy,
which is a way to bring the Clinton people back in, to draw them in to the
fall campaign.
MATTHEWS: OK. Thank you.
By the way, we have an extra feature, as many of you know, on our Web site
now, where these panelists tell you a lot more about their "tell me
something"s.
I'll be right back with this week's BIG QUESTION. When the primary battle's
finally over, will Hillary Clinton lead her army into the cause of Obama? Be
right back.
(Announcements)
MATTHEWS: Welcome back.
So here's the week's BIG QUESTION. When the primary battle is finally over,
will Hillary Clinton lead her army into the cause of Barack Obama? Norah?
Ms. O'DONNELL: Yes, but slowly and maybe quite unhappily.
MATTHEWS: Oh. Richard.
Mr. STENGEL: Yes, and because she knows "brand Hillary" benefits from
joining in and saying `one for all and all for one.'
MATTHEWS: They'll join. They'll join. That's two. She'll bring the forces
of greatness to the cause of Barack Obama.
Ms. TUCKER: Yes.
MATTHEWS: Women, working people, labor leaders, the rest.
Ms. TUCKER: Yes, but not with a great deal of enthusiasm.
MATTHEWS: Howard, where are you? A real joiner or the fighter just to
pretend?
Mr. FINEMAN: Actually the key for Barack Obama is to win back Bill Clinton,
to tell Bill Clinton, `You're the man again. You're back. Come back. You've
been resurrected. You're no longer the anti-guy. You're the first black
president all over again.'
MATTHEWS: And will he bring the Hillary people back?
Mr. FINEMAN: Well, if Obama plays it right, Bill Clinton will have the plane
and the money to do it.
MATTHEWS: Will Bill Clinton be re-crowned the leader of the Democratic Party?
Mr. FINEMAN: Yes. Yes. And if Obama's smart, he'll do that.
MATTHEWS: OK. Thanks for a great roundtable. Make him the national chair.
Kelly O'Donnell, Rick Stengel, Cynthia Tucker, Howard Fineman.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
CHRIS MATTHEWS, host:
That's the show. Thanks for watching. To catch a webcast of our show, go to
thechrismatthewsshow.com. See you next week.
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