Leads: NBC's The Chris Matthews Show
Announcer: This is THE CHRIS MATTHEW SHOW. Today...
CHRIS MATTHEWS, host:
McCain's war. For years, John McCain has been an American hero. Now, as he
gets ready to announce for president, he's blowing the bugle for an unpopular
war. Is he hitting the right note?
Team of rivals. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are tough guys butting for the
same turf. How'd the city kid get the upper hand?
And central Tenet. During a run-up to the Iraq war, the CIA's George Tenet
was one of George Bush's most trusted confidants. In a new book, will he tie
the bad case for war to Dick Cheney?
Hi, I'm Chris Matthews. Welcome to the show.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Interview: Cynthia Tucker, editorial page editor of the Atlanta
Journal-Constitution; Dan Rather, HDNet; Andrea Mitchell, NBC's
chief foreign affairs correspondent; and David Ignatius, The
Washington Post discuss John McCain's worries for the '08
campaign, George Tenet's upcoming book Tell Me Something I Don't
Know; The Big Question
CHRIS MATTHEWS, host:
Cynthia Tucker is editorial page editor of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Dan Rather is global correspondent for HDNet. Andrea Mitchell is chief
foreign affairs correspondent for NBC News. And David Ignatius is a columnist
for The Washington Post and author of the new spy thriller "Body of Lies."
First up, John McCain is an iconic figure in American politics. His courage
as a POW in Vietnam and his willingness to fight the toughest political
battles at home have made him a hero to millions. During his insurgent race
in 2000, he captivated voters across the spectrum who were fed up with
politics as usual. But now as he gets ready to officially announce his second
run, McCain faces new obstacles. The Arizona maverick's readiness to buck the
party line is still a hard sell to party regulars. But McCain isn't just
hurting among Republicans. As the most vocal backer of President Bush's surge
strategy, he's become the champion of an unpopular war and he knows it.
Senator JOHN McCAIN: I do not allow my views and my concern about the future
of the United States of America's involvement in Iraq and all the implications
of it as in any way how it affects my personal ambitions. I will not and
cannot, as I've said on numerous occasions. I'd much rather lose a campaign
than lose a war.
MATTHEWS: The war is the number one source of John McCain's pain among
Democrats and independents.
Dan, this is one of those change elections, it looks like, coming up this year
in 2008.
Mr. DAN RATHER (HDNet Global Correspondent): Agreed.
MATTHEWS: People want to see who's going to fix the Bush problems, not
continue the Bush era. Is this guy a credible change agent at this point?
Mr. RATHER: No, at least not yet. He's going through a very bad period. I
won't say that his whole campaign plan has collapsed, but he certainly has the
wind in his face, not to his back with this. But with John McCain and his
record of surviving the North Vietnamese POW camp, I won't count him out until
he says he's out. But it's a real problem for him, because it is a change
election. And by sticking with and supporting the war, he's allowed himself
to be pigeonholed that way, and for right now that's a loser in even a primary
election.
MATTHEWS: Cynthia, he looked so much like a war post, a heroic war poster for
an extremely unpopular war. Can he break that image? Or does he want to?
Ms. CYNTHIA TUCKER (Atlanta Journal-Constitution Editorial Page Editor):
Well, he still has time, Chris. He still has time to say, `I backed the
surge,' and by early 2008 to say, `OK, I backed a temporary increase in
troops. It didn't work. The Iraqis didn't do what they were supposed to do.'
But let me tell you how he won't get there. He won't get there by making
stupid statements of the sort he made out of Baghdad recently, when he said
it's perfectly safe to walk through this market. It isn't perfectly safe. He
was there with a company of troops and attack helicopters overhead. It was...
MATTHEWS: It was a Potemkin village situation, yeah.
Ms. TUCKER: For a guy known for straight talk, I thought it was a very
disappointing and even sad moment.
MATTHEWS: Andrea, the polls show--that's all true, I think. But the polls
show that most Republicans are with the president. And we're talking about a
guy running in Republican primaries. Can he still grab the hawks in the
party?
Ms. ANDREA MITCHELL (NBC News Chief Foreign Correspondent): He can grab the
hawks in the party, but the problem he has is the hawks in the party are often
the very conservatives who have never trusted John McCain since he ran against
George W. Bush. He didn't win Republican primaries; he won Republican
primaries with crossover and independent voters. He didn't have the base
then, he doesn't have it now. He crossed over to what some who like the
Straight Talk Express would call the dark side when he embraced George Bush in
the 2004 campaign. And once he goes there, he can't reclaim his persona as
the change agent. I think it becomes that much harder.
MATTHEWS: And also his speaking at Liberty University and rapprochement, if
you want to put a nice word on it, with people like Pat Robertson and Jerry
Falwell.
Ms. MITCHELL: Right. I just don't think that the conservatives will ever
embrace him. They don't trust him after those primaries back in 2000.
MATTHEWS: David Ignatius, it seems to me that he does have a son, a young son
fighting in Iraq. He has tremendous credibility as a patriot. Why can't that
begin to--why isn't there a gleam on his helmet? And can there be again?
Mr. DAVID IGNATIUS (The Washington Post): Well, I think it's possible that
there can be again, if things start to go a little bit better in Iraq.
Obviously it will rebound to McCain's credit. He will be seen as the guy who
stood by our troops, stood by the president. You know, I think it drives John
McCain crazy to think that we're going to lose the war in Iraq. This is the
guy who got pounded in that POW camp all those years, and he is just--he's a
fighter. And he thinks we're going down in defeat. It think he's very
uncomfortable with where he is. He hated being attacked as a--as a hypocrite
for chasing right wing votes. I've talked to him about it. He just--he
really--his skin crawls about it.
MATTHEWS: I know.
Mr. IGNATIUS: So he's determined to do what he thinks is right. In this
case, he thinks we're in danger of defeat, we have to stand by the president,
we have to stand by our troops. He really means it.
MATTHEWS: Another source of John McCain's pain is his main Republican
competition, Rudy...(network audio difficulties). Look at this poll from Time
magazine. McCain, 13 point--Cynthia, Cynthia, look at it! What is going on
here?
TEXT:
RUDY IN THE LEAD
Giuliani 35%
McCain 22%
Time Magazine
March 26
MATTHEWS: I sense a--just adjusting this--that Giuliani has got the best part
of the Bush legacy: homeland security, `I protected us from another attack.
I'm the guy in the streets looking out for you.' He's "Mr. New York," "Mr.
Big City." And John McCain's become "Captain Baghdad." He's tied into the
worst part of the--the hardest part to sell.
Ms. TUCKER: Well, for those social conservatives who only view Rudy Giuliani
as the guy who stood up and took charge on that awful Tuesday several years
ago, he seems an interesting figure. Somebody will investigate a little bit
more. When they come--when they get to know him, I can't imagine...(network
audio difficulties)...hard core social conservatives--given his personal life,
given his--some of his stands on social issues...
MATTHEWS: Yeah.
Ms. TUCKER: ...are growing to like him very much. But they
clearly...(network audio difficulties)...McCain. I mean, it's an interesting
thing.
MATTHEWS: Isn't that interesting?
Ms. TUCKER: So many social conservatives have this irrational hatred for
John McCain.
MATTHEWS: Because he cut off their funding. He was for funding campaign
reform, and he didn't believe in the causes that they believe in.
Let me ask you, does it really come down to, everybody here, to sort of like
an NCAA final four bracket, that the two moderates, if you want to call them
that, Giuliani and McCain, are fighting for the same bracket, David? That one
of them, only one of them, can make it all the way through?
Mr. IGNATIUS: You know, it's hard for me really to see them in precisely the
same bracket. McCain has a history as a reformer on all kinds of issues from
the environment to campaign finance reform. Looking at Giuliani, I think he's
accident-prone. I mean, I--we haven't really unwrapped his package yet.
What's in it? But I think as we unwrap it over this year, I'd be surprised if
Giuliani looks as strong six months from now as he does today.
MATTHEWS: Yeah--go ahead.
Ms. MITCHELL: I think the Bernie Kerik problem is really underestimated, if
you will. That you've got this guy that he embraced, that he'd inve--that he
took from being his driver in New York City to being police commissioner, who
headed--is accused of hanging out with the mob, and wasn't vetted properly for
Homeland Security jobs and for going to Baghdad. I mean, I just think that
there's too much out there.
MATTHEWS: But let me ask you about the age issue here. And this is talked
about by a lot of people here, that the last pain for McCain, if you will, is
his age. He's the oldest candidate in the race, but he's also the most
familiar face. Dan, can people see eight years of John McCain in the White
House at this point, in his 70s, the whole time?
Mr. RATHER: I think they can. A lot depends on whether he keeps his energy
level up and whether he has his fighting heart very evident. I know some
people who like John McCain, raising money for him and other things, are
worried that he hasn't really mounted the fight. If he does that, I think he
can be seen as a possible eight-year candidate. What you haven't talked about
is somebody is going to come in on the right of McCain and Giuliani. If
that's Fred Thompson, he could be trouble with a capital T for both of them.
Ms. MITCHELL: Exactly.
Mr. RATHER: I wouldn't underestimate Giuliani, because the one thing I
perceive that Giuliani has going for him--it's true, a lot of conservatives in
the party have doubts about him. They want to win. They think it's going to
be an uphill fight. And they sense that Giuliani, for all of his
problems--including Kerik problem, whatever--that he may be a winner.
MATTHEWS: Right.
Mr. RATHER: And as long as he can keep that whiff of a winner about himself,
there'll be a lot of Republicans who, to mix our metaphors here a little, will
hold their nose and say, `I want to win so I'll go with it.' But McCain has
got real problems, not--I think the age is the least of his problems at the
moment.
MATTHEWS: Well, I'm not sure. Do you all agree with that? I don't think we
should have a unity ticket here on this question, because I think he would
have to be president almost to 80 at a time which is based upon lickety
split...
Mr. IGNATIUS: He looks old.
MATTHEWS: ...responses.
Mr. IGNATIUS: Because he looks old in this--in this campaign right now. You
know, he just--he looks old, slow...
Ms. MITCHELL: It's not chronological age.
Mr. IGNATIUS: ...slow in his answers. It's not chronological age.
Ms. TUCKER: Right. Exactly, exactly.
Mr. IGNATIUS: It's just, he just looks like he's been...
MATTHEWS: Well, he got beaten up over there in Hanoi Hilton.
Ms. TUCKER: And it's also his injuries.
MATTHEWS: He really--he got beaten up, and it may be catching up to him.
Ms. TUCKER: Indeed. Because he's...
Ms. MITCHELL: And bruised by it.
Mr. IGNATIUS: He--you know, I--he's got a lively side to him that, you know,
the press fell in love with him...
MATTHEWS: McCain.
Mr. IGNATIUS: ...six years ago.
MATTHEWS: Is there a problem here with his attitude? Does he look like--he
doesn't look like the happy warrior out there.
Ms. MITCHELL: No.
MATTHEWS: Isn't that a problem?
Ms. MITCHELL: I think the tape you played at the beginning of the program,
it looks like a hostage video. He does. He looks burdened by...
MATTHEWS: We like our presidents to want and be happy with the job, you know.
Ms. MITCHELL: He doesn't look Reaganesque. He looks as though he's captive
and burdened by this war.
MATTHEWS: Yeah. Yeah.
Ms. TUCKER: He is also burdened by having to kiss up to these social
conservatives. He really doesn't agree with them on a lot of issues.
MATTHEWS: I know.
Ms. TUCKER: And it makes him unhappy...
Mr. IGNATIUS: Maybe so.
Ms. TUCKER: ...to have to give a speech at Liberty University.
Ms. MITCHELL: And we shouldn't overlook Romney out there with raising so
much money and getting a lot of the mainstream conservatives.
MATTHEWS: No, I know. I--well, last month, desperate to reclaim the magic of
his 2000 campaign, McCain brought the Straight Talk Express out of the
mothballs. There it is, the big bus. We put it to the Matthews Meter, 12 of
our regular panelists. Can McCain reclaim his old maverick image? Well, this
is a tough verdict here. It's--basically, you all are saying `It's too late,
baby.' And only one think he can hold onto the old magic. Andrea, you're with
the majority. You think it's yesterday.
Ms. MITCHELL: I think that the maverick image is yesterday. But there is
still, as Dan and the others have been saying, there's still a place for him
in this campaign. It's not as a maverick. I don't think he can campaign as
the maverick when he's embraced the Bush agenda and this unpopular war. But
he still can try to reclaim that conservative base.
MATTHEWS: OK, let's be unusually brutal on this show, although I think the
guy deserves to be president in terms of all his service to the country, and
here we are saying he's yesterday's news.
Cynthia, can he make it through to February 5th, when we have this tsunami
Tuesday and all these big primaries?
Ms. TUCKER: I think he will make it until then, Chris, but he may not come
out on the other side.
MATTHEWS: Dan Rather.
Mr. RATHER: I think he can, but it's not a sure thing. He's got to reverse
the negative momentum for the moment to make it even that far.
MATTHEWS: He may fly before the big event.
Mr. RATHER: I think that's possible.
MATTHEWS: Andrea?
Ms. MITCHELL: I agree with. Dan He's raised $12 1/2 million in the first
quarter. That is impressive. And he's not--probably not burning that much of
it, because we haven't seen that active an apparatus. But I think there's a
possibility that he could fall, particularly if Fred Thompson gets in the
race.
MATTHEWS: Yeah, I was thinking of that. Go ahead.
Mr. IGNATIUS: He--John McCain has risked everything on the Baghdad primary,
and if he loses the Baghdad primary--that's this year.
MATTHEWS: When's that, September? When are we going to know one way or the
other? No, really, when will we know whether the surge works?
Mr. IGNATIUS: The White House is putting out the idea that in September,
it'll be time to make a make or break decision. If that decision is it hasn't
worked, John McCain's sunk.
MATTHEWS: Before we go to break, by the way, John McCain's political stardom
has also made him a comedy star, whether he's making appearances with Jay
Leno, David Letterman, Jon Stewart or in a cameo in "The Wedding Crashers."
But McCain really hit the big time when he hosted "Saturday Night Live" in
2002. In one particular sketch with a familiar looking host, he pretended to
be hard nosed Attorney General John Aschroft.
(Beginning of "Saturday Night Live" clip courtesy Broadway Video)
Unidentified Actor: (As Chris Matthews) Attorney General, we're going to
start with you. How do we make this country feel safe again?
Sen. McCAIN: (As John Ashcroft) Chris, security starts with vigilance. As
Americans, we will never truly be free until each and every one of us is
afraid of being thrown into jail. And thanks to the TIPS program, we've been
able to detain tens of thousands of potential American terrorists for months
at a time for little or no reason, just like the founding fathers dreamed.
(End of clip)
MATTHEWS: Has anybody any question as to why the conservatives don't like
this guy? Cynthia, there he is lampooning one of their guys, talking about a
police state and mocking the Patriot Act and the whole works.
Ms. TUCKER: Well, John McCain has--is a real libertarian. He's an Arizona
conservative...
MATTHEWS: Right.
Ms. TUCKER: ...not an Alabama conservative. But many conservatives believe
you don't criticize within the group. That's why they don't like him.
MATTHEWS: And there he is taking Manhattan by storm.
When we come back, critics say Bush and Cheney cooked the intelligence to sell
the Iraq war. Now the former CIA director himself is saying, `Don't blame the
agency, blame Cheney.' Plus, scoops and predictions right out of the notebooks
of these top reporters. TELL ME SOMETHING I DON'T KNOW. Be right back.
(Announcements)
MATTHEWS: Welcome back. This month George Tenet, the former director of the
CIA and a key member of Geroge Bush's war council, is said to release an
explosive new book. In it, Tenet takes on Vice President Dick Cheney. Cheney
has maintained that Tenet told President Bush in December of 2002, two weeks
before Bush decided to invade Iraq, that there was a slam dunk case to be made
that Saddam Hussein possessed those banned weapons. But now Tenet denies ever
making that claim.
David, this is a big fight. It's push back time. How tough is this book
going to be?
Mr. IGNATIUS: It's going to be very tough. George Tenet has been doing a
slow burn ever since he left CIA. He's been angrier and angrier as he saw
himself being, essentially, being made the fall guy on WMD in Iraq. And he's
going to come back saying how he and his agency, the CIA, were pushed again
and again by Cheney and Cheney's people to give them the answers that they
wanted. And he's got chapter and verse on that. Not so much on Iraqi
chemical weapons, but on the question of Iraqi links with al-Qaeda. He will
tell a story that I think will make people's hair curl. But he's been waiting
a long time to tell this.
MATTHEWS: So he will say that he was used to build the case for war
improperly.
Mr. IGNATIUS: He will say that the CIA tried its best to give honest advice
to the president and kept getting pushed, and resisted. And he'll also
say--this is very important part of this--that on the question of what would
happen in Iraq after our invasion, the CIA pretty consistently warned him,
`You have trouble ahead. You will not be able to unite this country. Sunnis
and Shiites are going to be at daggers.' And I think that's another important
part of the book.
MATTHEWS: Andrea, what do you got?
Ms. MITCHELL: Well, he'll also attack and criticize Condoleezza Rice, who
has denied critical briefing before 9/11, a July briefing. They actually have
the slideshow that they showed her when they were telling her that al-Qaeda
was threatening. And they will also go after the Clinton White House,
suggesting that they were told categorically in writing by Janet Reno, then
the attorney general, that any attempt to kill bin Laden--not capture him
alive, but kill him--would be viewed as illegal.
MATTHEWS: So will the president come back and attack him? Is that what's
coming in the next few weeks, a battle royale between the CIA and the
president?
Ms. MITCHELL: Oh, absolutely.
MATTHEWS: And vice president?
Ms. MITCHELL: Absolutely. This--you're going to be refighting the--both
sides of who lost Iraq, who lost the WMD struggle. And this may play brutal,
because obviously the Bush White House has pictures of George Tenet receiving
the Medal of Freedom from the president.
MATTHEWS: OK.
Ms. MITCHELL: In this book, he talks about how he--how he really struggled
with himself over whether to accept that badge.
MATTHEWS: This is going to be "Deliverance," Dan, to war critics, because
they're going to be able to say--they're not arguing that there was lying
going on and bad intel, they're lying--they're arguing about whose fault it
was. The CIA's saying, `You did it,' and the vice president's looking back
and saying, `You did it.'
Mr. RATHER: Yes, and unstated there is that there's a lot of incompetence.
The question is, whose incompetence was it? I think the public at large may
take the view of this--all of these books written by the insiders are kind of
a history of the period as told to Hans Christian Andersen, that the public
has had enough of all of these people who's just--is the truth in any of them?
MATTHEWS: Yeah.
Mr. RATHER: And the book runs the risk of being seen, rightly or wrongly, as
trying to polish legacy and even scores. Not saying it won't...
MATTHEWS: But we like that. Because sometimes that's the only way to...
Mr. RATHER: It could sell.
MATTHEWS: No, that's sometimes the only way to get the truth.
Mr. RATHER: True.
MATTHEWS: When there's animus from one side and others say, `Wait a minute,
this didn't happen this way. You did it.'
By the way, we have to talk about another popular book that's coming out.
"Body of Lies" is come out, and I like this writer. He wrote a great book
called "Firing Offense" a while ago, and I blurbed this baby. You are a great
writer. You are the new John Le Carre.
Mr. IGNATIUS: God bless you.
MATTHEWS: Now, let me ask you this, smart guy, now you got to pay for your
supper. How do we win the battle against Islamic terrorism?
Mr. IGNATIUS: This book is about an effort to get inside al-Qaeda and to
stop it. And it's an effort that goes badly wrong. And to simply summarize
what I think the lesson is, and the theme of the book is, we don't know enough
about our adversary. We--and by that, I include the CIA, but all
Americans--really don't know enough about the Middle East. And we stumble in
that part of the world. We make mistakes thinking we know what we're doing,
and we get in trouble again and again. I've watched that for 25 years, and
I've tried to tell a little snapshot of that story in this book.
MATTHEWS: Can we learn it? Can we get enough people with Arabic Islamic
backgrounds that can teach us how to deal with these people, and learn from
what are dangers might be developing, what we're doing wrong?
Mr. IGNATIUS: We can--you know, we can do--we can do better at that. But
the truth of the matter is, the great spies, the penetrations of al-Qaeda that
will save us from another attack are not going to be made by Americans.
They're going to be made by other intelligence services that we work with.
MATTHEWS: OK.
And who's going to win this fight? You watch this fight. You'll be
editorializing about it. The CIA, are they going to win? Do they always win?
Or do the political hawks, the ideologues, the neoconservs, who's going to win
this fight?
Ms. TUCKER: Well, you...
MATTHEWS: I mean, who took us into war under false pretenses?
Ms. TUCKER: Well, I think it's already been won. I think the public largely
believes that Dick Cheney and President Bush politicized intelligence to take
it--take us into the war. And that's one of the reasons George Tenet's book
is a little late. He can't reclaim his reputation. People have already made
their decision. He was part of the administration that politicizes this war.
MATTHEWS: This is the toughest panel in America. We've already taken care of
John McCain, now we're going after George Tenet. Don't come here for your
verdict. I'll be right back with scoops and predictions right out of the
notebooks of these top reporters.
(Announcements)
MATTHEWS: Welcome back.
Cynthia, TELL ME SOMETHING I DON'T KNOW.
Ms. TUCKER: Environmentalism is coming to churches in the deep South, Chris.
Now evangelicals think it's safe to talk about climate change.
Mr. RATHER: Russia's role in getting the release of the British sailors from
Iran, untold story. You'll be hearing about it.
MATTHEWS: Positive role?
Mr. RATHER: Positive role.
MATTHEWS: Andrea?
Ms. MITCHELL: For all of the Bush White House criticism of envoys going to
Damascus, the Israelis are secretly talking to Syria and want to do so
publicly, but the White House is pushing back.
Mr. IGNATIUS: We're talking about spies. A new spy book coming this month
called "Spy Wars" will say that a Russian defector, Soviet defector, who came
and told us that the Russians had nothing to do with Lee Harvey Oswald when he
was in Russia, that that defector was a phony.
MATTHEWS: OK, thank you. And Arnold Schwarzenegger will run against Barbara
Boxer for the US Senate from California.
I'll be right back with this week's BIG QUESTION. It's tax time. Our
question: Will Democrats get rid of those lower Bush tax rates?
(Announcements)
MATTHEWS: Welcome back. THE BIG QUESTION this week: Will Democrats get rid
of those lower Bush tax rates?
Ms. TUCKER: Yes and no. They'll keep some and let some sunset.
MATTHEWS: But they're going to cut--they're going to bring back some of the
higher tax rates?
Ms. TUCKER: Indeed.
MATTHEWS: Dan Rather?
Mr. RATHER: If so, not very many. I think they're basically going to stick
with tax breaks, because they're afraid to do otherwise they'd be blamed for
the economic downturn.
MATTHEWS: Oh. Andrea?
Ms. MITCHELL: And, in fact, by getting rid of those tax breaks, they would
have to make up with cuts elsewhere, and they can't agree on cuts. In fact,
they're on this pork barrel run.
MATTHEWS: Mm. David Ignatius, will we have these Bush tax cuts in perpetuity
or will the Democrats let them die?
Mr. IGNATIUS: They will extend most of them, claiming all the while that
they're trying to be responsible, that they're against tax breaks for the
rich. But they show no sign...
MATTHEWS: OK. If they let one die, they'll be blamed by the Republicans for
raising taxes, that's my prediction I'll make.
Anyway, thanks for a great roundtable: Cynthia Tucker, Dan Rather, Andrea
Mitchell and David Ignatius.
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Sign-off: The Chris Matthews Show
CHRIS MATTHEWS, host:
That's the show. Thanks for watching. See you here next week.
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